Royals vs. Tigers Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-104 | 7 -122 / +100 | -1.5 +162 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-112 | 7 -122 / +100 | +1.5 -196 |
Cole Ragans has been one of the most impressive starting pitchers in the second half of the season. He'll start Kansas City's Thursday matinee against the Detroit Tigers, who will throw Sawyer Gipson-Long, another impressive, young pitcher. Gipson-Long only has a few starts under his belt, but he's been great.
However, both of these teams have hit well in September. Ragans has had a much larger sample size to draw from, and he can eat innings. With that being the case, the Royals moneyline is the best bet for Royals vs. Tigers.
Kansas City Royals
Ragans has a 3.31 ERA against a 3.22 xERA this season. His Barrel Rate is only 6.3%, his Average Exit Velocity is 88 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is 37.6%. Additionally, his strikeout rate is 28.8% and his walk rate is 10.1%. That said, his second half has been impeccable with a 2.34 ERA over 11 starts.
Cole Ragans ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/BtzxrAMpDn
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 23, 2023
The Royals have done well against righties this month. They have a 107 wRC+ and a .771 OPS with a 9.4% walk rate and a 23.2% strikeout rate. In even better news, they have nine active hitters with a xwOBA over .325 this month off of righties. That should give them a leg up against Gipson-Long’s inexperience.
Kansas City's bullpen is a tad concerning with a 4.53 xFIP, a 19.8% strikeout rate and a 8.5% walk rate in September. The Royals only have two relievers with an xFIP below 4.00, so they'll need Ragans to pitch deep into this game.
Detroit Tigers
Gipson-Long has fared well in his limited starts. He has a 2.40 ERA over 15 innings, but those were all against horrible offenses (the White Sox, Angels and A’s). In the minors this season, he held a 4.33 ERA and a .737 OPS against. In AAA, he only had a 38.8% ground-ball rate.
The Tigers have hit lefties well in September. They have a 128 wRC+ and a .840 OPS with a 9.6% walk rate and a 24.3% strikeout rate. Detroit has seven hitters with a xwOBA over .325, which is similar to the Royals, but lower. Spencer Torkelson can hammer the ball, but the Royals have a little more depth and also have an edge with the more experienced starting pitcher.
However, the Tigers have been better out of the bullpen this month, so if Gipson-Long struggles, he has backup. Detroit owns a 3.42 xFIP with a 26.5% strikeout rate and a 6.6% walk rate. Still, if Ragans pitches deeper into this game, that'll negate Detroit's advantage.
Royals vs. Tigers
Betting Pick & Prediction
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