Royals vs Tigers Pick | MLB Odds, Predictions (August 1)
Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images. Pictured: Seth Lugo
Royals vs. Tigers Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +106 | 8.5 -105o / -112u | -152 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 8.5 -105o / -112u | +135 |
Royals vs Tigers odds for Thursday's AL Central matchup have the Royals as -172 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (-105o / -115u).
The starting pitching matchup at Comerica Park features right-hander Seth Lugo for Kansas City and right-hander Keider Montero for Detroit.
Find my Royals vs Tigers preview along with my pick and prediction in my Thursday MLB betting guide for this AL Central matchup below.
Kansas City Royals
While Lugo has put together a strong campaign, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming. He possesses a 3.95 xERA and ranks in the 37th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
We've already seen this expected regression start to come to fruition with his latest start against the Cubs. Lugo surrendered six runs in that outing en route to a 9-4 loss.
Following the right-hander is a fade-worthy bullpen. Kansas City's relief pitching ranks in the bottom eight of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
The good news for this pitching staff is that run support shouldn't be difficult to come by. This season, the Royals rank in the top-12 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and stolen bases.
Detroit Tigers
That success at the dish is likely to continue against Montero. The rookie has had a difficult start to his career, posting a 1-4 record with a fade-worthy 6.38 ERA and 1.45 WHIP through his first seven appearances on the mound.
His analytics are equally poor as he ranks in the sixth percentile in xERA and fifth percentile in xBA. Montero has now allowed five earned runs in three consecutive starts, and there were nine or more total runs scored in all three of those outings.
Like Lugo, Montero is probably not going to be bailed out by his bullpen, either. Detroit's relief staff ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
Royals vs. Tigers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Neither pitching staff should be trusted tonight. Both Montero and Lugo rank in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate and barrel rate.
Both bullpens also rank in the bottom half in ERA, FIP and xFIP. While the Tigers don't possess the most intimidating lineup, they are still capable of putting up a crooked number on Lugo.
On the other hand, Kansas City's lineup has been terrific this season, and I don't expect Montero to be able to handle it well. Finally, there have been nine or more total runs scored in four of the Royals' past five games and in eight of Detroit's past 12.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-105 | Play to -110) |
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