Royals vs. Yankees Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+220 | 8 -105 / -115 | +1.5 +100 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -270 | 8 -105 / -115 | -1.5 -120 |
The New York Yankees haven't gotten the results they've wanted once Aaron Judge hit the IL with a foot injury. They've been weak in their last 10 games, but they get a chance to rectify their path against the Kansas City Royals this weekend.
The Yankees put forth Gerrit Cole against Brady Singer on Saturday.
Cole has been himself, but his expected results leave little to be desired. That said, he's still a far better pitcher than Singer, who may be one of the worst starters in baseball at the moment.
With that being the case, the Yankees still have enough in the tank in their lineup to put up some runs against a weak pitcher. Their moneyline is a bit steep with Cole on the bump, but a look at their team total would be wise.
Kansas City Royals
Singer owns a 5.70 ERA against a 5.48 xERA. His average exit velocity of nearly 92 mph and hard-hit rate over 51% drive these poor numbers.
His walk rate is above-average at 7.7%, but his strikeout rate is 17.8%, down almost 7% from the prior season.
There's not much to celebrate here for the former first rounder. He may be facing a slumping lineup, but he hasn't consistently proven he can manufacture outs, either.
The Royals are also one of the weakest hitting teams in the league. Off of righties in July, they have a 5% walk rate, 22.7% strikeout rate, .620 OPS and 66 wRC+. Vinnie Pasquantino going on the IL didn't help.
In that same timeframe, they have two batters above a .330 xwOBA. Matt Duffy and MJ Melendez are solidly above .320, but the rest of this lineup is putrid.
In relief, the Royals have also struggled. Trading Aroldis Chapman to Texas takes the wind out of the sails.
They maintain a sub-20% strikeout rate and 12%+ walk rate with a 4.82 xFIP.
They do have three active arms below the 4.00 xFIP mark, but this won't get the job done if Singer can't go deep into the ball game.
New York Yankees
Cole is one of the best pitchers in the game, despite a 3.75 xERA. His 2.78 ERA is fantastic, even with some regression baked into the future. He has lowered his average exit velocity and now ranks in the 54th percentile. His hard-hit rate ranks around the middle of the league, as well.
His strikeout rate has plummeted, but both his strikeout and walk rates are far above-average and should be enough to get by a weak KC lineup.
Now, the Yanks only have an 84 wRC+ and .653 OPS in July off of right-handers. They do have a 10.6% walk rate. They also have seven active batters over the .320 xwOBA mark, so this is far better than the Royals.
And they should handle Singer with ease.
The Yankees' bullpen has had its own troubles, and this is one area the hefty moneyline may not make sense. The Yankees’ relief staff carries a 19.3% strikeout rate, 13.7% walk rate and 5.25 xFIP into this game. They only have two active arms below a 4.00 xFIP, so they may have some trouble.
Luckily, Cole is used to throwing deep into games, so this negates the Yankees' bullpen impact on this matchup.
Royals vs. Yankees Betting Pick
The Yankees are still the clear favorite here for a reason, but I won't be backing the moneyline.
Instead, since they have enough hitters in the lineup who can shockingly battle with a righty on the mound, they should put up some runs off of one of the weakest pitching staffs (and starters) in baseball.
Take this from 4.5 (-125) to 5 (-133).
Pick: Yankees Over 4.5 Runs | Play to 5 |
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