The New York Yankees can punch their ticket to the ALCS with a win on Thursday night over the Kansas City Royals in Game 4 of the ALDS.
The Yankees offense looked lifeless at times on Wednesday, but Giancarlo Stanton decided to take it upon himself to put the team on his back. Stanton provided most of the offense in a 3-2 win, going 3-for-5 with 2 RBI.
It will be Gerrit Cole on the mound tonight, and he'll opposed Michael Wacha in a rematch of Game 1 starters.
I got craftier than usual for tonight's game and developed a Royals vs Yankees parlay that pays out 14-1 on your original investment.
Royals vs Yankees Parlay Picks for ALDS Game 4
- Royals +0.5 Run Line F5 Innings -(130)
- Maikel Garcia to Record a Hit (-170)
- Maikel Garcia to Steal a Base (+360)
- Over 7.5 (-122)
Parlay Odds: +1312 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
It pains me to write this as a Yankees fan, but the Royals have the clear edge in the first five innings (F5). Despite finding some success against Michael Wacha in Game 1, the Yankees have been tormented by him in the past.
The poor offensive numbers from the Bronx Bombers' lineup is staggering. They are batting a miserable .155 against Wacha in the past; he's also only allowed a .241 OBP, so it's been tough sledding all around.
Aaron Judge should be the AL MVP, but he has yet to wake up in the ALDS. Judge has one hit, and his overall postseason batting average has dipped to .203 in 182 ABs.
He is bound to turn it around eventually, but he's had practically zero success against Wacha. Judge is 1-for-20 lifetime with 13 Ks against him.
The Royals do not have the most significant numbers against Gerrit Cole lifetime, but Cole's metrics during the regular season give me cause for concern. His chase, whiff and strikeout rates have all dipped, leading me to believe that the elbow injury he suffered before the season is much more severe than people think.
It could be that he is aging, but Cole has yet to look the part several times throughout the regular season. The Royals should be able to take an early lead or, at the very worst, be tied through five innings.
A staple at the lower portion of the Royals lineup, Garcia is 6-for-19 during the postseason. Garcia is 4-for-7 lifetime against Cole, so there is much to like about the matchup.
According to his metrics, Garcia batted .231 during the regular season but was criminally unlucky. Garcia ranked above the 90th percentile in chase, whiff and strikeout percentage, which suggests he makes a lot of contact.
Typically, hitters consistently putting the ball in play have an excellent chance of raising their batting average. He also had a 90.4 mph average exit velocity on balls he put in play, which is another encouraging sign.
I like the matchup for Garcia, and he'll be a big reason the Royals force a Game 5 if they get the job done.
Despite his poor OBP and batting average, Garcia stole 37 bases during the regular season. This leg is a correlation connected to the previous prop, as he'll be looking to run if he gets a hit with nobody on base.
Cole allowed seven stolen-base attempts with Austin Wells behind the plate. Wells is an improvement behind the plate compared to Jose Trevino, but Wells' 20% CS% is not astronomically higher than his.
Garcia stole 37 bases during the regular season and was only caught twice. He also has chipped in a steal during the postseason.
Given the offensive matchup for Garcia, we are getting a great price on his stolen base prop. I am already factoring in that he will get on base, and in an elimination game, I expect the Royals to do whatever it takes to churn out all of the runs they can with runners on base.
I already discussed how Gerrit Cole is not the ace he used to be, but I am targeting the whole game over because of Michael Wacha.
The Yankees should struggle against Wacha again, but his splits are fascinating when you look at his inning-by-inning breakdown.
Wacha's ERA before the fourth inning does not eclipse 2.80. In the fourth, it climbs to 5.79, dips a tad in the fifth and sixth innings, and skyrockets to 12.00 in the seventh.
I realize he may not pitch a full seven innings, but if he is cruising through six innings on a low pitch count, I could see the Royals rolling the dice to bridge the gap even closer to their high-leverage relievers.
Wacha may dominate the Yankees, but his expected batting average allowed during the regular season was .255, which ranks below the 30th percentile. He also sported below-average barrel, chase and whiff rates.
The Yankees' offense will eventually wake up, so besides the Royals getting to Cole early, I think the Bombers' bats will have a late-game offensive surge.
The Royals 'pen has been used frequently over the last few days, so their arms may be starting to fatigue. Even if Wacha silences the Yankees early, do not expect them to stay quiet throughout the ballgame.
