Despite scoring just three runs, the Royals swept the AL Wild Card series against the Orioles. They did so with dominant pitching, holding the Orioles to just one run and will now look to do the same to the Yankees in the AL Division Series.
The Yankees took five of the seven regular-season meetings and will hand ace Gerrit Cole the ball in ALDS Game 1. With Michael Wacha getting the start for Kansas City, runs may be at a premium. Here are my Royals vs Yankees player player props for the series opener.
Alex Hinton's Royals vs Yankees Player Props
- Gerrit Cole Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-137, Caesars)
- Michael Wacha Over 14.5 Outs Recorded (-120, bet365)
Gerrit Cole Player Props: Ace Has the Royals' Number
With the Yankees avoiding the Wild Card Series, there was little doubt about who their Game 1 starter would be.
In 17 career postseason starts, Cole is 10-6 with a 2.93 ERA. Since 2018, he has pitched at least six innings in 11 of his last 14 postseason starts. He has also gone six innings in each of his last three starts against the Royals.
The Royals present a great matchup for Cole at the moment. They are averaging just two runs per game over their last 14 contests, including the postseason.
Bobby Witt Jr. drove in the game-winning run in each of the Royals' Wild Card victories, but his success may not continue against Cole. Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez are a combined 6-for-30 (.200) against Cole, with Perez doing much of the heavy lifting there.
Additionally, the Yankees need Cole to set the tone in this series. The Game 2 matchup is Cole Ragans vs. the inconsistent Carlos Rodon, and on paper, you'd give the starting pitching edge to Kansas City there.
If Cole struggles in Game 1, it would be not a shock to see the Royals take a 2-0 lead back to Kansas City. However, if he is able to keep their top three hitters in check once again, he should be able to work six innings here and deliver a quality start.
Michael Wacha Player Props: Trends Like Wacha in Game 1
Meanwhile, on the other side, we will just need Michael Wacha to work five innings. He did so in 26 of 29 starts this season for nearly a 90% hit rate.
With two days off and an off-day Sunday, the Royals have a rested bullpen. But this spot sets up well for him.
Anthony Rizzo is hitting .393 with three home runs against Wacha, but he is unavailable for this series. If you remove him from the equation, the other Yankees hitters are a combined 11-for-79 for a .139 opposing batting average. Wacha is 2-1 with 2.97 ERA in 11 games (nine starts) against the Yankees in his career.
Because of his success against the Yankees — particularly the current roster — I was also interested in his earned runs line, which is -135 for under 2.5 earned runs.
However, the price for his outs line is slightly better and we have such strong trends in our favor.
Wacha has pitched five innings in eight of his last nine starts against the Yankees. I expect that trend to move to nine of 10 after Saturday evening.
