Sunday Night Baseball on April 20 features the series finale between the San Diego Padres (15-6) and Houston Astros (10-10) at Daikin Park. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Astros look to complete an impressive three-game sweep over a Padres side that still ranks first in MLB with a record of 15-6. Sunday's series finale features an intriguing pitching matchup, as two high-end starters who have had similarly slow starts to the season will face off in Dylan Cease and Framber Valdez.
Find my Padres vs Astros prediction for Sunday Night Baseball below.
My Padres vs Astros Prediction
- Padres vs Astros pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline +110 (Play to +105)
My Padres vs Astros best bet is the Padres moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Astros Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 7.5 +100 / -119 | +110 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +166 | 7.5 +100 / -119 | -130 |
Padres vs Astros Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Dylan Cease (SD) | Stat | LHP Framber Valdez (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 6.64 / 3.83 | ERA /xERA | 4.91 / 4.16 |
| 2.98 / 3.42 | FIP / xFIP | 3.40 / 3.20 |
| 1.52 | WHIP | 1.27 |
| 18.7% | K-BB% | 17% |
| 36.7% | GB% | 51.7% |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 114 |
| 108 | Location+ | 106 |
Nick Martin’s Padres vs Astros Preview
Padres Betting Preview: Cease's Rocky Start
After finishing the 2024 campaign with a 3.47 ERA and 3.82 xERA over 189 1/3 innings, Cease enters this matchup with an ugly ERA of 6.64 in his initial 20 1/3 innings this season.
However, Cease's horrible ERA comes mainly due to the fact that he soaked up nine earned runs in batter-friendly conditions at Sutter Health Park versus the Athletics. Outside of that treacherous outing, his work has still looked relatively on par with what we have typically seen throughout his excellent career.
Cease holds a 3.83 xERA and an xFIP of 3.42 this season. His K-BB% of 18.7 is down compared to last year's mark of 20.9%, but the slight drop is nothing to panic over given that pitch metrics argue he is still offering the same quality of stuff.
Cease holds a Stuff+ rating of 108 and a Pitching+ rating of 117 this season, compared to a Stuff+ rating of 110 and a Pitching+ rating of 113 in 2024.
The Padres have hit left-handed pitching quite effectively this season; they hold a ninth-ranked wRC+ of 106 and rank third in BB/K ratio versus lefties.
Their offensive upside is lessened currently as Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth are sidelined due to injury, but manager Mike Shildt is still capable of fielding a lineup capable of providing a stiff test for Valdez if he does not rest key pieces in this Sunday matchup.
Astros Betting Preview
As is the case with his counterpart, Valdez has endured a worse-than-expected start to the season with a 4.91 ERA in his initial four outings, but his overall numbers are tanked by the fact that he allowed seven earned runs in only four innings in his last outing versus the St. Louis Cardinals.
Valdez holds an xERA of 4.12 and an xFIP of 3.20 in his first 22 innings. Pitch metrics are still high on Valdez as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 114 and a Pitching+ rating of 120.
Valdez's ground-ball rate (51.7%) is down considerably compared to last season's mark (61.7%), which is concerning given that he's allowed a 50% hard-hit rate.
While the Astros have numerous key pitchers on the injured list, Pedro Leon and Taylor Trammell are the only position players who will be unavailable due to injury in this matchup.
Houston has gotten off to a slow start offensively, as it holds a wRC+ of 88 and an OPS of .637. It holds a 25th-ranked wRC+ of 89 versus right-handed pitching, a 15th-ranked BB/K ratio, and 10th in hard-hit rate.
Part of the Astros' slow start offensively has come down to Yordan Alvarez's poor start. Alvarez has slugged just .354 in his initial 19 games of the season.
However, Alvarez still ranks in the 95th percentile in hard-hit rate and in the 82nd percentile in xSLG rate.
Padres vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
While Valdez is a better pitcher than we have seen so far this season, Cease also still appears likely to be a far better than average starter this season and should have a good chance of bouncing back versus an Astros offense that is off to a slow start.
Even with Merrill and Cronenworth sidelined, the Padres offense — led by Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado — still looks quite strong on paper and has been the far more productive unit between these two sides this season.
The Astros' lineup should continue to find better form moving forward, but it's still hard to say it's offering an edge over the Padres' unit right now, and Cease and Valdez look fairly comparable.
At +110 we are getting a good price to back the league-leading Padres avoiding a sweep on Sunday Night Baseball, but I would recommend keeping an eye out for lineup confirmations prior to first pitch.
Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline +110 (Play to +105)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Padres to win at +110 is my favorite play.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Padres to cover the reverse run-line at +155 looks to be a decent option in this matchup, and could be worth a smaller bet in a game featuring two starters that look to have a wide range of outcomes.
Over/Under
A total of 7.5 looks fair given this pitching matchup.
Both Cease and Valdez are capable of producing better results than we have seen thus far, but that seems to be accurately accounted for by a relatively low total.
