A titanic showdown is on tap for Saturday night as the Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64) host the San Diego Padres (93-69) at Dodger Stadium for Game 1 of the NLDS. First pitch for this postseason NL West clash is scheduled for 8:38 p.m. ET on FS1.
Two aces will be featured on the hill tonight, as Dylan Cease gets the ball for the Padres and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the Dodgers. The Dodgers are listed as -142 moneyline favorites in the series opener, while the total is set at over/under 7.5.
Continue below for my Padres vs Dodgers predictions and my MLB NLDS Game 1 picks for Saturday, October 5.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction
- Padres vs Dodgers picks: First Five Innings Under 4 (-105)
My Dodgers vs. Padres best bet for NLDS Game 1 is on the first five innings under, where I see value at -105 down to -115. The best line is available at Caesars, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Dodgers Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 7.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -185 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-142 | 7.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +154 |
Padres vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Dylan Cease (SD) | Stat | RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 14-11 | W-L | 7-2 |
| 4.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.3 |
| 3.47 / 3.22 | ERA /xERA | 3.00 / 3.44 |
| 3.10 / 3.44 | FIP / xFIP | 2.61 / 2.86 |
| 1.07 | WHIP | 1.11 |
| 20.9% | K-BB% | 22.6% |
| 39.8% | GB% | 47.9% |
| 121 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 100 | Location+ | 105 |
Justin Perri's Padres vs Dodgers Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Feeling Confident
If you were entering a pivotal NLDS against the best team in the sport, you'd maybe be a bit worried, right? Now, I might not be inside the San Diego locker room to report this directly, but the Padres won the seasonal series 8-4 over the Dodgers this year, and one would think that inspires a high level of confidence. It was actually 8-2 in the first 10 games before LA took the last two, but that was just two weeks ago and the seedings of the playoff scenarios were mostly settled, and it can be argued those final games might not have been as consequential.
Nonetheless, it has been the higher seeded team that has had the better fortune against the "better" lower-seeded team. Of course, all of that is moot going into a fresh playoff series, but the Padres aren't scared. That's for sure. What they might be, however, is a bit disappointed, considering they just lost ace-caliber starter, Joe Musgrove, for the playoffs and most of next season to a UCL injury that will require the dreaded Tommy John surgery.
Musgrove is a key piece for this team, and handicaps their upward potential, but there's still more than enough talent on this squad to shock the Dodgers, and the larger baseball world, by winning this series against the proverbial Justice League that Los Angeles has built.
It begins tonight with Dylan Cease, and this might be one of the most pivotal games of the entire year for baseball… why? Because in the last four years, only one of eight NLDS series has gone to Game 5, and the winner of Game 1 has won their series at a 75% rate over the last 10 years. Then, the winner of this series will likely be the stronger team over whichever NL East team manages to win in the other National League series, so there's likely a very strong correlation between winning tonight's game, getting to the World Series, and winning a ring.
Cease is an elite talent that has the potential to put this game on his back and win it himself. He is a bonafide top-10 starter in the league. His fastball sits at 97 MPH, 8th fastest amongst qualified starters. His 15.6% swinging strike rate is 7th best, and his 3.8% mistake rate is also top-1o (data: PitcherList.com). This guy is good, and the numbers underneath his results, are even better. This is exactly why the Padres went out and got Cease, for games like this.
The Padres offense will have to go through Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but they've done that already… twice. They put up five runs in one inning on Yamamoto to open the MLB Season in Seoul back in March, and then tagged him again in April for three runs in five innings… so they won't be facing him without experience.
Look for righties like Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado to do the heavy lifting for San Diego today, as Yamamoto has largely shut down lefties this season (.526 OPS against) compared to righties (.744 OPS against). Both Machado and Tatis create runs at a 20% or better clip than the MLB average with a 120 and 143 wRC+, respectively, as RHH vs RHP this year.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Destined to Win a World Series?
Every time I attempt to analyze the Los Angeles Dodgers, I get big "Evil Empire" energy. Maybe I am biased as a New York Yankee fan, but in recent years, the Yankees haven't been good enough to carry that same energy because they haven't made a World Series appearance in 15 years, but I digress… this Dodgers team deserves that title because they have one of the most insanely star studded lineups of all time.
Let's start with the five, soon six, MVP awards that this team could place on the table… Frederick Charles Freeman; NL MVP, 2020. Markus Lynn Betts; AL MVP, 2018. Shohei Ohtani; AL MVP, 2021 & 2023 (and likely 2024 NL MVP). Clayton Kershaw, NL MVP, 2014.
I'm not sure the last time a team had four MVPs on it for a full season like this… the Reggie Jackson, Rod Carew Angels, maybe? Nonetheless, the Yankees have two past MVPs, the Phillies have one, though he's won twice, but four for the Dodgers is ridiculous, and that doesn't even consider Teoscar Hernandez and Max Muncy who both have 30-home run, 100-RBI type of power. This team is stacked.
Tonight's starter is no less impressive, either. Yoshinobu Yamamoto dominated in Japan before coming to the MLB. We're talking three straight MVPs and pitching triple crowns from 2021-2023, which also won him the equivalent of the Cy Young in all three years. There's really no recent MLB comparison to his dominance, you'd have to go back to Maddux.
So now Yamamoto is in the MLB, the Dodgers signed him to a 12-year $325M contract and paid $50M to his previous team. It's tied for the 9th-biggest in baseball at the moment but is the 5th-biggest in this series! Tonight is, thus, the first real test of whether or not he was worth the price. The Dodgers largely did not need him, nor have him, for most of the season. He only threw 90 innings, but went 7-2 in his 18 starts and his pitch level results were great.
Yamamoto ranked in the 94th percentile for Called Strikes plus Whiffs rate, earning one or the other on 31.5% of pitches this season. His ground ball rate is near 50% on the balls that are made contact with, and his 2.61 FIP ranks in the top 97th percentile, meaning theres maybe two to three starters with a better number. He did get a bit unlucky this season, his .306 batting average on balls in play against was higher than expected, but the way I see it, that means he should only improve on these results.
His splitter is nasty, he's allowed just one home run and 16 hits on the pitch (355 total pitches) and he pairs it with a fastball which creates grounders at a high rate. He's made four starts since returning from a near three month stay on the injured list; allowing six earned runs across just 16 innings but did look like his old self. He should be ready to go, but don't expect much more than four or five innings of work today unless he's hyper effective.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
The playoffs always bring more interesting line movement and more trustworthy liquidity. Fewer games means the focus is narrowed for both sharps and bookmakers so usually there is some back and forth, as there is with this NLDS Game 1. The Dodgers opened a high as -148 at some shops, but were bought down to -130 throughout the week. Since then, it's slowly moved back to where it sits now at -140 on the consensus line for Los Angeles.
The total opened at 8 and now sits 7.5 with -115 juice towards the over, a decently sizable move on a line that has since stayed stagnant. My play is going to be on the total and is going to agree with that initial market move. I like the pitching matchup here, and I tend to think pitching has been able to beat out hitting across the MLB this season (especially in the playoffs).
Averages and totals have been down all season, and that before the playoffs, where now every run could mean life or death for two of the highest payrolls in baseball. Give me the under, and make it the first five innings, so we can avoid any bullpen shenanigans.
I want to trust Cease and Yamamoto tonight. These are two elite arms. There are plenty of hitters capable of getting on base today, but stringing together multi-run innings will likely be very difficult.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 4 ( -105, Caesars)
Moneyline
The Padres have had the Dodgers number this season. San Diego has won 8 of 12 games between these teams this season. The Dodgers, though, are 52-28 at home this season and went 91-50 when favorites to win, both very impressive marks. The Padres were equally impressive, 47-33 on the road is no small feat and they beat the odds as underdogs, attaining a winning 31-25 record when expected to lose by Vegas.
Padres do have the momentum factor, if that is something you try to account for – but the other side of the coin is the Dodgers are rested. My lean is towards the Padres to get it done behind Cease for the price, but if it was even money I'd tell you the Dodgers are the better team, I'm just not sure they're thirty cents better as the -140 moneyline implies. There should be plenty of Padres representation in Los Angeles tonight.
Run Line (Spread)
This one is pretty clearly going to have value on the +1.5 to me. This should be a low scoring game, and the Dodgers could easily win by one run if they were to get the victory. They've done that a lot this season. They have 91 wins when favored of 141 games favored, but they only have 74 spread covers when laying the -1.5. They are not the automatic fire on the run line like they used to be. They only covered in 52.5% of their home games (42-38) as well. If they take those rates into today, with a higher price of around +160 for -1.5, that'd be great! But, the Dodgers were so often favored so heavily that their run line prices were near even this season… today's test, per the price, is much tougher, and has a high chance to result in a one run game either way. Thus, the smarter play, even though a bit of a scary high price, is to take Padres +1.5.
Over/Under
My top play for this game is the Under. I like both the full game and the first five but have a bigger edge on the first five alone. Dylan Cease is one of the best starters in the game and has proven that this season, he should be able to tame the top of the Dodgers lineup within reason and keep them to just a run or two early. Yoshinobu Yamamoto might show up and throw down some of the nastiest stuff of the playoffs if he's feeling good. Four starts off the mend, an extended break to get ready… it wouldn't shock me to see him light everyone up on the biggest stage of his career so far. You have to think the unfortunate first taste against the in South Korea is still in Yamamoto's mind. I think he goes out there with an intent to make a strong impression and we get a pitchers duel even with star studded lineups on both sides.
Padres vs Dodgers Betting Trends
Padres Betting Trends
- The Padres are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- The Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The Padres are 47-33 in their road games against the spread
- The total has gone OVER in 2 of Padres' last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 44 of Padres' 80 last games at home
Dodgers Betting Trends
- The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games
- The Dodgers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The Dodgers are 39-41 in their road games against the spread
- The total has gone OVER in 3 of Dodgers' last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 45 of Dodgers' 80 last games at home
