After losing a high-scoring affair on Saturday night, the San Diego Padres will look to dig their teeth into their MLB playoff series with the Los Angeles Dodgers as they send Yu Darvish to the hill for NLDS Game 2 at Dodger Stadium.
The Dodgers will counter with Jack Flaherty, who appeared somewhat flat over the last two months of the season, and had his first playoff start pushed back a day in an effort to get him right.
Will we see more runs with two flawed pitchers on the hill? Can we find a way to back both offenses while avoiding two strong bullpens? Let's get into my Padres vs Dodgers prediction and pick for Game 2 Sunday, October 6.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction
- Padres vs Dodgers picks:First Five Innings Over 4.5 (+100 | Play to -107)
My Padres vs Dodgers best bet for NLDS Game 2 is First Five Innings Over 4.5, where I see value at +100. The best line is available at DraftKings, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Dodgers Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | +1.5 -175 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-142 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | -1.5 +145 |
Padres vs Dodgers Game 2 Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Yu Darvish (SD) | Stat | RHP Jack Flaherty (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-3 | W-L | 13-7 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.2 |
| 3.31 / 3.64 | ERA /xERA | 3.17 / 3.51 |
| 4.09 / 3.99 | FIP / xFIP | 3.48 / 3.00 |
| 1.07 | WHIP | 1.07 |
| 16.9% | K-BB% | 24% |
| 38.7% | GB% | 39.5% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 102 | Location+ | 102 |
Kenny Ducey’s Padres vs Dodgers Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Yu Darvish On the Decline
It was a very different season for 38-year-old Yu Darvish, who finally admitted defeat with a waning strikeout rate and declining performance over the past couple of seasons. He's begun to really lean on his sinker to get outs, and while he's failed to roll up many ground balls, he's looked competent enough with a .231 Expected Batting Average which falls 14 points lower than the league average and 11 points higher than where that number was last season.
He's only made 16 starts, however, dealing with an injury that held him out for three months, and on top of that he's allowed 1.3 homers per nine after allowing 1.2 per nine a season ago. It would seem that Darvish is more or less the same pitcher as he was last season, and while he's done a better job overall of limiting expected hits, he's still had issues with home runs, and since returning in September, he has recorded a poor .412 Expected Slugging against him.
The Padres' offense continues to do what it does best, however, striking out in only 20% of plate appearances in Game 1 and continuing to keep that number under 20% this postseason. They managed six walks on top of that, something that this team has rarely done.
As for this dominant bullpen, after a so-so 3.68 ERA in the two games they closed out against the Atlanta Braves, they turned around to allow just on earned run against L.A. on Saturday over 4 2/3 innings after Dylan Cease crumbled yet again.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Jack Flaherty Hoping to Bounce Back
Jack Flaherty, on the other hand, is searching for the level he reclaimed in Detroit earlier this season. So far with the Dodgers, he's pitched to a so-so 3.58 ERA in 10 outings after looking like the eventual American League Cy Young Award winner for the first part of the year. He finished his campaign on a sour note, too, allowing a .271 xBA in five September starts with a .431 xSLG and 10.8% walk rate. The strikeout numbers have come down considerably, too, so we can safely say the command simply hasn't been there.
The right-hander's last start came back on September 25 against this very same Padres team, and it didn't go so well. He walked three batters — something that's notable considering San Diego hasn't shown an interest in taking many walks this year — and struck out just five over five innings of three-run ball. He allowed a home run in that game too, and has now allowed three over his last two appearances.
Speaking of home runs, the Dodgers hit one on Saturday, but managed an Isolated Power under .100 for the entire game. It was a barrage of hits and walks that helped L.A. come back in that game after an early 3-0 deficit, though it should be said that the bullpen really starred in that one with six scoreless innings.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Game 2 Betting Analysis
I think I'm ready to fire up yet another over in this series.
I'm not liking what I've seen out of either pitcher in the last month, and as the Padres continue to limit strikeouts, Flaherty should continue to struggle in that area which will render him much more ineffective. On top of that, the Padres have now shown the discipline required to draw walks on numerous occasions in recent weeks, both against Flaherty and against this Dodgers team on Saturday.
I'm fearful of what will happen with Darvish on the other side, considering he's pitched to plenty of fly balls this season and has failed to improve upon a disastrous 1.2 home runs allowed per nine last season.
He's not finding strikeouts, either, and this Dodgers team is a very disciplined group which has shown the ability to hit for average and power over the last month.
I don't feel compelled to challenge either of these bullpens, so I'll opt for the first five innings.
Pick: First Five Innings Over 4.5 (+100)
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline for this NLDS Game 2.
Pick: Pass
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also not playing either side of the run line for this game.
Pick: Pass
Over/Under
I'm targeting the first five innings over 4.5, which I outlined above. I'm avoiding the full game over/under considering the strength of the bullpens.
Pick: F5 Over 4.5
Padres Betting Trends
- Padres are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Padres are 47-33 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Padres' last 5 games
Dodgers Betting Trends
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
- Dodgers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Dodgers' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Dodgers' 80 last games at home
