Who will the New York Mets face in the NLCS? That will be answered on Friday night when the San Diego Padres face the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLDS. First pitch at Dodger Stadium is set for 8:08 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FOX; other viewing options include MLB.TV, YouTube TV and Fubo.
Game 5 will feature starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, which is the first MLB playoff matchup between Japanese-born starters.
Padres vs Dodgers odds have the Dodgers as -148 moneyline favorites and Padres as +124 underdogs. The over/under has a consensus total of 8 (-105o / -115u). The Padres are -170 to cover the run line (+1.5) and the Dodgers are +140 (-1.5).
Find my Padres vs Dodgers predictions and picks — plus the latest odds, starting lineups and probable pitchers — below.
My Padres vs Dodgers Prediction for Game 5
- Padres vs Dodgers picks: Padres Moneyline (+125 | Play to +110)
My Padres vs Dodgers best bet is on the Padres moneyline, where I see value at +125. The best line is available at bet365, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Dodgers Odds, Predictions, Picks
| San Diego Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+124 | 8 -108o / -112u | +1.5 -170 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-148 | 8 -108o / -112u | -1.5 +142 |
- Padres vs Dodgers Moneyline: Padres +124, Dodgers -148
- Padres vs Dodgers Total: Over/Under 8 runs (-108o / -112u)
- Padres vs Dodgers Run Line: Padres +1.5 (-170), Dodgers -1.5 (+142)
Padres vs Dodgers Game 5 Probable Starters
| RHP Yu Darvish (SD) | Stat | RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-3 | W-L | 7-2 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.8 |
| 3.31 / 3.64 | ERA /xERA | 3.00 / 3.44 |
| 4.09 / 3.99 | FIP / xFIP | 2.61 / 2.86 |
| 1.07 | WHIP | 1.11 |
| 16.9% | K-BB% | 22.6% |
| 38.7% | GB% | 47.9% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 102 | Location+ | 105 |
Padres vs Dodgers Preview Predictions, Lineups
It all comes down to this for the Padres and Dodgers in the NLDS. Can Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead the Dodgers to the NLCS, or will Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado spoil the fun?
Padres Betting Preview
Padres Game 5 Lineup
- Luis Arraez (1B)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF)
- Jurickson Profar (LF)
- Manny Machado (3B)
- Jackson Merrill (CF)
- Xander Bogaerts (SS)
- David Peralta (DH)
- Jake Cronenworth (2B)
- Kyle Higashioka (C)
It was a bit of a weird season for the Padres’ Yu Darvish. He endured multiple stints on the injured and restricted lists, and ended up missing more than three months. He made just 16 starts, but in those outings went 7-3 with a 3.31 ERA.
At age 38, Darvish’s strikeout rate continues to decline, so he has been relying on his sinker a lot more. Darvish has had a bit of a home-run issue when he misses his spot, but he has done a relatively good job of limiting hits.
In Game 2, Darvish was brilliant and shut down the Dodgers. He pitched seven innings and allowed just one run on three hits. His lone blemish came off a pair of singles and a sac fly. The top of the lineup for L.A. was held hitless against Darvish.
That includes the likely NL MVP Shohei Ohtani, who has had a relatively quiet this series. He hit a big home run in his first career postseason game in Game 1 but has gone just 2-for-11 over the last three games without recording an extra-base hit.
San Diego’s best player has certainly not been quiet though.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is having a historic start to the postseason. He is 11-for-22 with four home runs and seven RBI through the first six games of the postseason. In this series alone, he is 7-for-16 with three doubles and three home runs in four games.
The Padres have had one of the best offenses in baseball over the second half of the season and this lineup has always seemed to have success at Dodger stadium. They are dangerous 1-9, especially with the way Tatis is hitting the ball right now.
Dodgers Betting Preview
Dodgers Game 5 Lineup
- Shohei Ohtani (DH)
- Mookie Betts (RF)
- Freddie Freeman (1B)
- Teoscar Hernandez (LF)
- Max Muncy (3B)
- Will Smith (C)
- Kiké Hernandez (CF)
- Gavin Lux (2B)
- Tommy Edman (SS)
The Dodgers have opted to go with Yoshinobu Yamamoto as their Game 5 starter over Jack Flaherty.
Yamamoto got the start in Game 1 and was knocked around a bit. He allowed five runs in just three innings and gave up three runs in the first inning. He managed just one strikeout and allowed a long home run to Manny Machado.
Flaherty, who could still pitch in this game in some capacity, didn’t fair much better. He pitched into the sixth inning but allowed four runs, including a pair of home runs. He managed just two strikeouts, which is normally his biggest strength.
Both starters will likely pitch in this do-or-die game, but both will likely have quick hooks. Los Angeles’ bullpen has allowed six runs across 20 1/3 innings. It shut out the Padres in the bullpen game on Wednesday, so we will likely see some more of that approach.
Los Angeles has had a top-heavy lineup all season and it will need Ohtani to have a big game here, especially with Freddie Freeman battling an ankle injury. He was scratched from the lineup in Game 4.
Mookie Betts has stepped up big and Teoscar Hernandez and Gavin Lux have hit the ball well, too, but they will need Ohtani to carry them here as he did for most of the season.
Los Angeles finished the season leading the league in wRC+ and wOBA, but San Diego’s offense has been better in this series.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Game 5 Betting Analysis
Since the All-Star break, these two teams have been playing at a nearly even pace. San Diego went 43-20 over the second half of the year, while Los Angeles went 42-23. Those were the two best records in baseball over the second half.
The Padres offense is scary from top to bottom, but no hitter is scarier right now than Tatis. He is hitting .500 with a 1.759 OPS this postseason. He has seven RBI and seven extra-base hits in six games. Only two players have more hits this postseason than Tatis has extra-base hits.
Big games usually come down to big-time players making big plays — it’s hard not to think Tatis will do that here. He relishes this kind of moment and playing the heel in these situations. It is a big reason why he has had a ton of success at Dodger Stadium in his career. Tatis is hitting .313 with a .992 OPS in 34 career games at Dodger Stadium.
On the other side, you can never count out Ohtani, but the Padres have seemingly figured out a formula to frustrate the superstar. He is now just 1-for-12 with six strikeouts against relief pitcher Tanner Scott, and you can bet we will see Scott face Ohtani again late in this ball game. Ohtani is also just 1-for-8 against Darvish.
Yamamoto and Flaherty both struggled against the Padres the first time around in this series. Yamamoto is 0-3 against San Diego this season and has allowed 13 runs in nine innings.
Emotions will be high at Dodger Stadium after the way things ended in Game 2. But there is something about this San Diego team that just seems to thrive under those conditions
I like the Padres to go up to Los Angeles and eliminate their division rivals on Friday night.
Pick: Padres Moneyline +120 (Play to +110)
Moneyline
I expect this game to be much closer to a coin flip, and like the Padres to pull off the upset and win Game 5 in LA. Back them at +120.
Pick: Padres moneyline
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play on either side of the run line.
Pick: Pass
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
Pick: Pass
Padres Trends
- Padres are 47-33 in their road games against the spread
Dodgers Trends
- The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Dodgers' 80 last games at home
- Teoscar Hernandez is slugging .526 on non-fastballs this season — 10th best in MLB– 92nd Percentile
Padres vs Dodgers Key Injuries
Padres Injuries & News
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| RHP Joe Musgrove | Tommy John surgery (out for season) |
| SS Ha-Seong Kim | Right shoulder inflammation (10-day IL; out for season) |
Dodgers Injuries & News
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| 1B Freddie Freeman | Right ankle (in starting lineup for Game 5) |
| SS Miguel Rojas | Adductor (not in starting lineup) |
Padres vs Dodgers Game 5 Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Calif. |
| Date: | Friday, Oct. 11, 2024 |
| Time: | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | FOX; MLB.TV; YouTube TV; Fubo |
Padres vs Dodgers is scheduled for a 8:08 p.m. ET, live from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Calif., on Friday, Oct. 11. The game is broadcast live by FOX and is streaming on MLB.TV, YouTube TV and Fubo.
