The series with the highest stakes in the final week of the season is easily the San Diego Padres (91-67) against the Los Angeles Dodgers (94-64). It's made for a highly entertaining series through the first two games with plenty of back-and-forth between two elite offenses. The Dodgers enter this series finale with a chance to clinch the NL West for the third straight season.
If you're on the East Coast, buckle up as the first pitch is set for 10:10 p.m. ET on Thursday night. Let's get into my Padres vs. Dodgers prediction for September 26.
Padres vs Dodgers Predictions
- Padres vs Dodgers picks: Padres Moneyline (+105)
My Padres vs Dodgers best bet is on Padres moneyline, where I see value at +105 down to -110. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Odds, Prediction for Thursday
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-105 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +160 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-115 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -190 |
- Padres-Dodgers Moneyline: Padres -105 | Dodgers -115
- Padres-Dodgers Total: Over/Under 8.5 (-120o / +100u)
- Padres-Dodges Spread: Padres -1.5 (+160) | Dodgers +1.5 (-190)
Probable Starting Pitchers for Padres at Dodgers
| RHP Joe Musgrove (SD) | Stat | RHP Walker Buehler (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-5 | W-L | 1-6 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.3 |
| 3.95/3.97 | ERA /xERA | 5.63/4.81 |
| 4.47/3.70 | FIP / xFIP | 5.69/4.49 |
| 1.19 | WHIP | 1.58 |
| 4.3% | K-BB% | 2.3% |
| 41.9% | GB% | 44.2% |
| 124 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 101 | Location+ | 102 |
Sean Paul's Padres vs Dodgers Preview
Dodgers Betting Preview: Walker Buehler in Trouble
Walker Buehler is on the bump for Los Angeles, and boy, is that a concerning statement against the hottest team in baseball.
Although Buehler's name holds plenty of cache, he's not the pitcher he was before his second Tommy John surgery. Buehler posted a 2.47 ERA just three years ago. Now, he's looked like a shell of himself with a 5.63 ERA and 5.69 FIP in 70 innings through 15 starts.
It's not like you can point to a particular stat in Buehler's profile that makes you wonder if it's bad luck. No bad luck here. Buehler just hasn't performed, and likely wouldn't be in the rotation if Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw remained healthy. The 30-year-old Buehler ranks in the 15th percentile in xERA, 16th in xBA, 12th in chase rate, 9th in whiff, and 21st in K rate.
The most concerning thing about Buehler is his last of strikeouts. He's a far less intimidating pitcher who has to be more cognizant of control than he did when he regularly pumped high 90s fastballs past hitters.
Perhaps Buehler discovered something in his last start, where he struck out nine batters in 5 1/3 innings, but allowed five runs. Did I mention it came against the Rockies? Yeah, I can't say I'm totally convinced Buehler is back to prime form because he pitched well against a Colorado team that fell out of playoff contention in June.
The Dodgers' offense remains one of the elite in the sport, boasting a 129 wRC+ in September with a pristine 10% BB rate and 20% K rate. Now healthy, this version of the Dodgers offense is exactly what people dreamt of when Shohei Ohtani inked his historic contract over the winter.
That Ohtani guy? He's ready for the first playoff series of his career. He's cracked nine homers with 12 stolen bases and a 219 wRC+ this month. The lone crack in Ohtani's game is his 27% strikeout rate, and that's why the Padres have found some success against him.
Padres Betting Preview: Teamwork Makes the Dream Work
The hottest team in baseball resides in San Diego, and that hot stretch has them in striking distance for the NL West title with less than a week to play. Since the calendar flipped to September, San Diego has lost just five games.
San Diego is the most well-rounded team in the sport with an ideal combination of offensive firepower and dominant pitching.
The Padres offense hasn't been as dominant as the Dodgers, but a 115 wRC+ with the second-best walk rate in September isn't too shabby. On a team with a trio of players making a combined 800+ million dollars (Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts) their best hitter is Jurickson Profar, who has a 143 wRC+ in his breakout year. I give the Profar nugget to shine light on how good this Padres lineup is.
While they don't have an Ohtani-caliber MVP player, the sum of the parts is just as good as the Dodgers — if not better.
Joe Musgrove has pitched terrific of late, posting a 2.27 ERA in his past 39 2/3 innings with 50 strikeouts. While Buehler is a question mark on the Dodgers' side, Musgrove is on fire at the perfect time.
Backing up Musgrove is one of the elite relief corps in baseball with Tanner Scott, Jason Adam and Robert Suarez shortening games to six inning games rather than nine because once it gets late, good luck scoring runs against San Diego.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Fading Buehler in this spot feels like the best plan of attack. Both offenses are awesome, we know that for certain. What likely determines the outcome of this series finale is which pitchers can turn in a better outing.
Musgrove is the better pitcher by far at this point and time, and the Dodgers shouldn't be favorites in a Buehler outing, especially since the Rockies just beat him. I love San Diego here.
Pick: Padres ML (+105), play to (-110)
Moneyline
I love the Padres ML here. Don't let the Dodgers talent and regular dominance overshadow reality.
Run Line (Spread)
The Dodgers lost two of Buehler's past three outings by 2+ runs against the Cubs and Rockies. Two teams in much worse shape than the Padres, so I like their alt line -1.5 runs at +181 odds.
Over/Under
I don't have a lean here since the Padres have went under in four of their past five games, while the Dodgers went over in three of their past five games. I could see this one trending in either direction.
Padres vs Dodgers Betting Trends
- 77% of bets and 89% of the money are on Los Angeles moneyline.
- 66% of bets and 66% of the money are on the over.
- 59% of bets and 69% of the money on Los Angeles to cover the run line.
Padres Betting Trends
- The Padres won nine of their past ten games
- The Padres are 45-30 in road games
- The Padres are 7-3 in their past ten against the spread
- The Padres are 2-8 to the under in their pas ten games
Dodgers Betting Trends
- The Dodgers are 6-4 in their past ten games
- The Dodgers are 50-28 at home
- The Dodgers are 41-37 against the spread at home
- The Dodgers are 9-1 to the over in their past ten games
Padres-Dodgers Game Info: How to Watch Thursday, Start Time, Channel, More
| Location: | Dodger Stadium |
| Date: | Thursday, September 26, 2024 |
| Time: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | SportsNet LA; San Diego Padres; MLB.TV |
