There are MLB playoff implications aplenty as the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers open a three-game series on Tuesday night at Dodger Stadium.
Powered by an unreal surge by Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers find themselves with a magic number of four to clinch the NL West. However, the Padres, who hold the first NL wild-card spot, find themselves just three games back in the division and are a real threat for the division crown.
I believe there's plenty of value on San Diego entering this NL West clash, and I have two Padres vs Dodgers predictions for Tuesday, September 24.
Padres-Dodgers Predictions
- Padres-Dodgers picks: Padres Moneyline (+100 | Play to -110)
My Padres vs Dodgers best bet is on Padres Moneyline, where I see value at +100. The best lines are available at Bet365, DraftKings, BetMGM and Caesars — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Dodgers Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | -1.5 +180 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | +1.5 -218 |
Padres vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Michael King (SD) | Stat | RHP Landon Knack (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-9 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 3.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 3.04 / 3.45 | ERA /xERA | 3.39 / 3.73 |
| 3.32 / 3.47 | FIP / xFIP | 4.71 / 4.19 |
| 1.20 | WHIP | 1.07 |
| 19.4% | K-BB% | 17.5% |
| 41% | GB% | 318% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 102 | Location+ | 99 |
Nick Martin’s Padres vs Dodgers Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Padres a Postseason Threat
The Padres are rightfully becoming a trendy pick to make some noise this postseason with a deep and well-balanced roster. Over the last 60 games, San Diego has played to a record of 41-19, which has its magic number to secure a wild-card berth down to one.
Stealing the division is still on the table as well, but it will likely require a three-game sweep of the Dodgers to start. FanGraphs offers the Padres a 9.4% chance of winning the NL West, which suggests there is value on San Diego at +1600 on Bet365.
The projected starters in this series should offer the Padres a solid chance. Tomorrow's game should see Dylan Cease start versus Jack Flaherty, and Thursday's finale will likely feature Joe Musgrove taking on Walker Buehler.
In 10 starts since the All-Star break, Michael King has pitched to an ERA of 2.34 and allowed a batting average of .213. He has been hard hit 27% of the time in that span and has an xFIP of 3.16. He has struck out 29% of batters and holds a K-BB% of 21.0.
King has overachieved his 3.45 xERA largely due to a 87% strand rate. He has pitched very well with men on base though — in those situations he holds an xFIP of 3.13 and a K-BB% of 22.6. Over the last two seasons, King has also struck out 31% of batters with RISP.
On offense, Luis Arraez looks to have avoided injury and should be available for this critical series. The Padres should be able to field their top lineup as a result, which will provide a tough test for Landon Knack.
Over the last month of play San Diego, ranks second with a wRC+ of 130 against right-handed pitching, and second over the entirety of the season. In the last month, the Padres hold the fourth-best BB/K ratio, and have punched out less than any other team. They also rank 12th in hard-hit rate in that span.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: LA's Rotation Decimated By Injuries
Knack has suddenly become an important arm for a Dodgers starting pitching staff that is missing Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, Clayton Kershaw and River Ryan.
In his last five starts, Knack has pitched to an ERA of 3.68 and allowed a batting average of .202. He holds a strong Stuff+ rating of 110 in that span, and he holds a slightly better than average strikeout rate of 24% despite modest chase and whiff rates.
Max Muncy was scratched from Sunday's matchup versus the Rockies, and is listed as day to day ahead of this matchup. In 685 PA's against right-handed pitching over the last month, the Dodgers have hit to a wRC+ of 128, and rank fifth in hard-hit rate at 35.4%.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Knack has the stuff to be a high-quality starter moving forward, and he has achieved a solid ERA in a small sample thus far. Still, it's hard for me to believe King shouldn't be viewed as the better arm given all that he has proven over the last two seasons.
King has also been particularly dominant in the second half of the season, including an ERA of 2.00 in three September starts. He also has been sharp on the road, with an ERA of 2.80 and a WHIP of 1.18. King will be supported by a high-quality bullpen, which enters in good shape after an off-day and ranks fourth in ERA over the last month.
The Padres offense has been the more productive unit in splits against righties in specific, even when isolating to a period of time when the Dodgers have had Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman in the lineup.
At +100 I see value betting the Padres to win this matchup, and at +1600 I see value on the Padres stealing the NL West.
Picks: Padres Moneyline (Bet to -110); Padres to win NL West +1600 (bet365)
Moneyline:
The Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 games straight up and 6-4 in their last 10 road games. At 45-30 on the road this season, San Diego owns the best road win % in the National League.
The Dodgers are 6-4 in their last 10 games and 6-4 in their last 10 games at home. At 50-28 at home this season, Los Angeles holds the second-best home win % in the National League.
Pick: Padres Moneyline
Run Line (Spread)
San Diego is 43-31 ATS on the road this season, and is 33-18 ATS as an underdog.
Los Angeles is 41-36 ATS at home this season, and is 72-64 ATS as a favorite.
Pick: Pass
Over/Under
Totals are 35-36-3 (O/U) when San Diego is on the road this season. Totals are 44-29-4 (O/U) when Los Angeles is at home this season.
Pick: Pass
Padres vs Dodgers Betting Trends
- 78% of the bets and 89% of the money is on the Dodgers moneyline
- 71% of the bets and 64% of the money is on the OVER (8.5)
- 58% of the bets and 53% of the money is on the Dodgers to cover the spread (-1.5)
Padres Betting Trends
- Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 games
- Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Padres are 43-31 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Padres' last 5 games
Dodgers Betting Trends
- Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games
- Dodgers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Dodgers' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 44 of Dodgers' 77 last games at home
