The San Diego Padres (91-66) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (93-64) continue their three-game series on Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is set for 10:10 p.m. ET.
These are the top two teams in the National League West, and after yesterday's Padres win, they are separated by just two games. That means that with a potential three-game sweep today and tomorrow, the Padres could tie the division lead with just three games remaining.
In this mid-week clash of aces, the Padres hand the ball to Dylan Cease, their big offseason signing, while the Dodgers start Jack Flaherty, a big trade deadline acquisition from the Tigers.
Will the marquee names on the mound be able to limit those in the batter's box? Freddie Freeman, Fernando Tatis Jr., Shohei Ohtani, Manny Machado, Mookie Betts, Jackson Merrill, Teoscar Hernandez, and Luis Arraez fill out a star-studded roster card fit only for September baseball in Hollywood.
Let's examine the latest MLB odds, including a Padres vs Dodgers prediction and pick.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction
- Padres vs Dodgers picks: Padres ML (+118) | Play to ML (+115)
My Padres vs Dodgers best bet is on Padres ML, where I see value at +120. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Dodgers Odds, Prediction
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 7.5 -122o / +100u | +112 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 7.5 -122o / +100u | -132 |
Padres vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Dylan Cease (SD) | Stat | RHP Jack Flaherty (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 14-11 | W-L | 13-7 |
| 4.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.2 |
| 3.27 / 3.42 | ERA /xERA | 3.10 /3.39 |
| 3.09 / 3.37 | FIP / xFIP | 3.41 / 2.97 |
| 1.05 | WHIP | 1.06 |
| 21.4% | K-BB% | 24.5% |
| 40.3% | GB% | 41.0% |
| 122 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 100 | Location+ | 103 |
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday Preview
Padres Betting Preview: Dylan Cease the Man of the Hour
The Padres are within range. That's the headline.
Entering Tuesday's series opener in LA, San Diego was three games back with three games against its division rival. That meant that at the end of this series, San Diego could be in the lead for the division and in control of its destiny.
And boy, did destiny show its head last night.
The Padres were in a precarious scenario with two men on in the bottom of the 9th and no outs. But a well-placed grounder led to a game-winning, playoff-clinching celebration in enemy territory and made the reality of a sweep all the more possible.
Tonight, the man of the hour is Dylan Cease.
Acquired in the offseason for a haul of prospects from the White Sox, you could argue that this is the most significant start of his career. Cease gets an elite number of swinging strikes, rarely makes mistakes, and throws at a top-tier velocity. His fastball sits at 97 mph, which ranks the 96th percentile. He mostly uses his slider in combination, with a hitter performance rating in the 98th percentile, per PitcherList.com. Hitters are mustering up just a .157 average against the pitch he goes to 43% of the time.
Combine that with Jurickson Profar, Fernando Tatis, and Jackson Merrill, who are all in the top 20 by wRC+ over the last two weeks, and you have a formidable challenge for any squad.
The Dodgers should have plenty to deal with, and when getting an underdog price on a team with these options, plus Manny Machado and Luis Arraez, there's a lot of value there. I think the Padres are live to win this game.
Dodgers Betting Preview: Can Jack Flaherty Slow SD's Roll?
The Dodgers have the best baseball player in the world in their lineup, and behind him have a roster of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez and Max Muncy, to name a few, and they've honestly had a down year with all the injuries to pitchers and Betts, too.
That said, they are still the team to beat in the National League and have been going toe-to-toe with teams like the Phillies, Diamondbacks and Brewers to prove their legitimacy.
Oh yeah, and that guy Shohei Ohtani broke into the 50-50 club. It is a very ordinary level of greatness for one organization.
The Dodgers are starting their ace on Wednesday, Jack Flaherty. Acquired for a hefty price of a stellar prospect, Thayron Lirzanzo, the Dodgers have an arm that has looked elite going for them in this big Wednesday night match.
Flaherty is an artist. He attacks the zone with his four-seamer, earning a 96th percentile called strike rate with the heater. He then keeps the auxiliary slider and curve outside the zone around 70% of the time while getting swings on those out-of-the-zone pitches almost 40% of the time.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Analysis, Pick
The market has made it clear that the Padres are the side with value.
This line opened as high as -154 and is now as low as -135 for the Dodgers. The total has stayed consistent at 7.5 for most of the day, and there seem to be some sharp indications towards the under but not much movement to back it up.
My pick is on the Padres for the price. They've been able to play the Dodgers well all season, and this should be priced much closer to +100 with Dylan Cease on the mound.
The Padres are much tougher competition than the Dodgers have seen over the past week, and Cease will not be a step down. His 122 Stuff+ is one of the higher ratings you'll see, and after being on the White Sox and now having a chance to put his team one game back for the NL West lead, I expect him to step up in what is the biggest start of his pro career thus far.
I'll take San Diego.
Pick: Padres ML (+118, FanDuel) | Play to ML (+115)
Moneyline
The Padres have won nine of their last 10 games and are about as hot as you can get on both sides of the ball.
They've kept teams from having big run-scoring innings with excellent starting and relief pitching. The bats are picking up with Fernando Tatis comfortably back in the lineup, and they are 8-3 when playing the Dodgers so far this season.
They could potentially win the NL West on a tiebreak, and I think that Dylan Cease is going to do more to limit the Dodgers than Flaherty will do to limit the Padres, so I'll take the Padres to stay hot for the underdog price as my play.
Run Line (Spread)
The Padres are 34-18 ATS when the underdog, as they are on Wednesday, but most of that success comes from 29 outright wins as dogs. Thus, you are paying the price for just five of those 23 losses where they have lost by one.
Based on the data, the likelihood is that if choosing between the standard -1.5 on the Dodgers and the +1.5 on the Padres, the -1.5 at a price is a better deal.
If the Padres are to lose, it is more likely to come at the hands of a large Dodgers offensive performance, which is always a potential.
I lean towards the home team on the Run Line, even though I see value in the away team's Money Line.
Over/Under
Wednesday's game brings a fascinating clash of recent performances — the Dodgers are 8-1-1 O/U in their last 10 games, and the Padres are 1-8-1 in theirs.
The Dodgers had a generally strong trend toward the over before this run as well, but with how Shohei Ohtani has been performing against their last two opponents (Marlins, Rockies), he's been carrying the team toward the number almost by himself most nights.
I would lean towards the Under on Wednesday.
I think Dylan Cease has a chance to remove all but maybe a solo home run or two from this game until the bullpen takes over.
Two top-tier teams in a playoff series could decide the division — defense, small ball, and good pitching typically win out in these scenarios, especially with aces on the mound.
Padres vs Dodgers Betting Trends
- The Padres are 9-1 in their past 10 games
- The Under is 8-1-1 in San Diego's past 10 games
- The Dodgers are 6-4 in their past 10 games
- The Over is 9-1 in Los Angeles' past 10 games
