The San Diego Padres didn't suffer a letdown following Sunday's dramatic walk-off win over the New York Mets as they topped the St. Louis Cardinals in the series opener on Monday.
The Padres and Cardinals continue their series at Busch Stadium tonight at 7:45 p.m. ET, so let's get to my Padres vs. Cardinals prediction.
Padres vs. Cardinals Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-140 | 8 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +125 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 8 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -150 |
Padres vs Cardinals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Dylan Cease (SD) | Stat | RHP Miles Mikolas (STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-10 | W-L | 8-10 |
| 3.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 3.43/3.27 | ERA /xERA | 5.19/4.37 |
| 3.13/3.24 | FIP / xFIP | 4.14/4.14 |
| 1.05 | WHIP | 1.26 |
| 22.9% | K-BB% | 12.7% |
| 39.8% | GB% | 42.2% |
| 123 | Stuff+ | 88 |
| 101 | Location+ | 109 |
Kevin Rogers’s Padres vs Cardinals Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Pads Keep Winning
The Padres were shut out at Cleveland in the first game following the All-Star break to fall to 50-50 on the season.
Since then, San Diego has ripped off an incredible 25-8 record in the past 33 games to move into the second NL wild-card spot behind Arizona, which is currently on a six-game winning streak.
Manny Machado drilled a two-run homer in the first inning, and the Padres never looked back in Monday's 7-4 victory at St. Louis to cash as a +115 underdog. It marked the fifth road series-opening victory for the Padres in the past six opportunities, while the Padres have scored six runs or more four times in this span.
Since the All-Star break, San Diego owns a perfect 6-0 record in Game 2's of a road series while winning 12 straight Game 2's of a series dating back to July.
Dylan Cease was hanging around in the NL Cy Young conversation last month, but that ship has sailed after allowing 11 runs in his past three starts. Cease tossed a no-hitter at Washington on July 25, which capped off a three-start stretch in which he didn't give up a run and yielded two hits while striking out 30 batters.
The Padres lost to the Mets in Cease's last outing on August 22 in an 8-3 setback as a -155 home favorite. The right-hander allowed three runs and nine hits in 6.1 innings of work, but San Diego owns a 4-1 record in Cease's last five road starts heading into tonight.
Cease struggled against the Cardinals last season as a member of the White Sox by giving up 11 hits and five runs in six innings of work. Chicago fell into an early 5-0 hole but got Cease off the hook by rallying for an 8-7 victory.
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview: Slumping Cards
The Cardinals reached the .500 mark with Sunday's comeback victory at Minnesota but are back in losing record territory following Monday's loss.
St. Louis owns a 9-14 record this month after closing July at 56-52 as time is running out for the Redbirds to make a playoff run.
It's been a brutal run for the Cardinals in the last two weeks by facing the Dodgers, Brewers, Twins, and Padres, all teams likely headed to the playoffs. Before that, St. Louis was swept at Cincinnati in a three-game set in which the Cards scored a total of four runs.
Miles Mikolas defeated the Padres at Petco Park in April, 5-2, as the veteran right-hander delivered six innings and allowed two runs as a hefty +140 underdog.
Mikolas rebounded from a pair of subpar starts against the Royals and Dodgers in which he was roughed up five runs apiece as he tossed six scoreless innings his last time out in a home win over Milwaukee.
What Mikolas did against the Brewers in his previous start was a nice change from his overall numbers at Busch Stadium this season. Mikolas lowered his home ERA to 5.94 after not allowing a run in six innings against Milwaukee, as he has yielded three runs or more in eight home starts in 2024.
Padres vs Cardinals Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Padres are 8-2 this season in Cease's starts after San Diego lost in his previous outing.
Combine that with the incredible 12-0 run in Game 2s, and I'm looking to back the better pitcher and better team this Tuesday on the road and take San Diego.
Pick: Padres Moneyline (-140) | Play to -145
Moneyline
The Cardinals have won three straight home games after losing the series opener, which included the walk-off grand slam in extra innings against the Brewers.
That said, we'll stick with the Padres, who have scored seven runs or more in nine of the past 11 Game 2's of a series.
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Run Line (Spread)
Seven of San Diego's last eight victories have come by two runs or more, but three of the past six road victories have come by one run apiece.
All three of St. Louis' losses on the homestand against Los Angeles and Milwaukee came by one run apiece before the three-run defeat on Monday.
Over/Under
The Cardinals have cashed the Under in seven of the last nine games, as one of those Overs came in Monday's defeat.
From July 10 through August 16, St. Louis hit the Over at home in 12 of 17 games. However, that number has gone the other way recently with a 4-2 Under run in the past six contests at Busch Stadium.
The Padres are currently on a 6-2 Over run the past eight games, scoring four or more five times in this span.
