Giants vs Reds Prediction: Picks & MLB Odds Today (August 4)
(Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images) Pictured: Matt Chapman
Following Blake Snell's no-hitter on Friday, the Reds exacted revenge Saturday with a series-evening victory, 6-4. Who will take the series Sunday? Well, Robbie Ray will attempt to do so for the Giants, while rookie Carson Spiers takes the mound for the Reds.
My Giants vs. Reds prediction is below.
San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 9 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +140 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 9 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -165 |
San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Robbie Ray (SF) | Stat | RHP Carson Spiers (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 4-2 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 4.82/5.19 | ERA /xERA | 3.46/3.43 |
| 7.02/4.62 | FIP / xFIP | 3.44/4.24 |
| 1.29 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 2.4 | K-BB% | 4.1 |
| 33.3 | GB% | 37.7 |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 87 |
| 94 | Location+ | 106 |
Sean Paul's San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview: Is Ray Undervalued?
Ray is making just his fourth start in two years after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. In two starts this year, Ray has pitched 9 1/3 innings with a 4.82 ERA and a 7.02 FIP. Those numbers aren't great, but it's hard to take anything from such a small sample size.
Ray is the same high-strikeout, high-walk pitcher he’s always been. Tommy John surgery didn’t change Ray’s plan of attack or velocity. In fact, he’s throwing harder than he was before (94.9 mph with his four-seamer).
The Giants' bats had a very up-and-down July and ranked 22nd in MLB with a 103 wRC+.
Putting the ball in play has proven to be difficult for the Giants as the posted the fourth-highest strikeout rate (26.4%) last month. They combat their strikeout issues with a 9% walk rate (ninth in baseball in July). Pitchers can't easily cruise through the game without an elevated pitch count since the Giants work counts — even if a strikeout is the ultimate result.
Last weekend, the Giants' lineup featured Jorge Soler and All-Star Heliot Ramos. Now, Soler is on the Braves and Ramos suffered a possible injury in Saturday's game. Does San Francisco still have enough firepower? I think so. Matt Chapman homered Saturday and is batting .400 in his past seven games. When Chapman gets hot, he's good enough to carry an offense.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: Can Spiers Compete?
Spiers has been a great source of reliable innings in Cincinnati. He owns a 3.46 ERA with a matching 3.44 FIP and it feels like Spiers is a crafty starter who should stick in the Reds' rotation for years.
Spiers isn't a hard thrower doesn't get many strikeouts. He fans 7.79 per nine innings but also walks just 0.87 per nine innings. This'll be an interesting matchup for Spiers as the Giants strikeout and walk a bunch, the opposite of Spiers' plan of attack.
The Reds' offense went from being no-hit by Snell to hanging six runs on Kyle Harrison in less than 24 hours. Harrison isn't a huge strikeout pitcher, whereas Snell and Ray build their game plans around the punchout.
That could prove problematic for the Reds' offense, which strikes out 22.8% of the time against lefties (11th in MLB). The good news for the Reds is they also have the fourth-best walk rate versus southpaws.
On the negative side of things, Cincinnati's wRC+ against lefties is 88, and only two hitters have a wRC+ above 110 — Jonathan India (141 wRC+) and Stuart Fairchild (122 wRC+).
Typically, Elly De La Cruz is the Reds' best hitter, but he just hasn't figured out left-handers. He's already a star, but to reach superstar status, he'll need to hit lefties.
San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm expecting the Reds to continue to struggle against lefties. Plus, Ray looked really, really impressive in his dismantling of the Dodgers two starts ago, before the Athletics, who were the best hitting team in MLB in July made him appear mediocre. That's not the case. He still possesses all the skills that helped him win the CY Young Award in 2021.
Pick: Giants Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
My Giants vs. Reds prediction is the Giants moneyline (-125), as I think Ray is a tad undervalued.
Another important nugget, per Action Pro: The Giants have allowed 2.3 runs per game over the past week, which is the best in baseball. The Reds' scuffling offense posted an MLB-worst 3.5 runs per game in the past week. Hot arms against cold bats. Give me the arms.
Run Line (Spread)
I'll pass on the run line. I don't see enough value on either side.
Over/Under
I like the under here, which is surprising in such a good ballpark for hitters.
The first game in this series went under (no shocker since the Giants no hit the Reds) and the second game went over in the ninth inning. I think both pitchers will have good outings against struggling offenses and that we'll see a low-scoring Giants win.
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