The surging San Francisco Giants (11-4) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (9-6) at Citizens Bank Park on Monday night. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NBC Sports Philadelphia/Bay Area.
The Giants are in the middle of a 10-game road trip and head to Philadelphia after winning two of three against the New York Yankees. San Francisco occupies second place in the NL West while the Phillies are in second place in the NL East in the early going of the MLB season.
Find my MLB betting preview and Giants vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Giants vs Phillies Prediction, Pick
- Giants vs Phillies Pick: Giants ML (+100; play to -115)
My Giants vs Phillies best bet is on San Francisco. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Giants vs Phillies Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9 +100/-120 | -105 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 9 +100/-120 | -115 |
Giants vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Landen Roupp (SF) | Stat | RHP Taijuan Walker (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 3.60 / 2.11 | ERA /xERA | 0.00 / 3.60 |
| 1.79 / 3.09 | FIP / xFIP | 2.99 / 4.34 |
| 1.50 | WHIP | 1.13 |
| 18.6% | K-BB% | 11.4% |
| 38.5% | GB% | 44.8% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 110 | Location+ | 93 |
Sean Paul's Giants vs Phillies Preview
Giants Betting Preview: Roupp! (There It Is)
The Giants may have found a gem with Landen Roupp, who looks like a lite version of Logan Webb. After pitching 50 relief innings last year, Roupp owns a 3.60 ERA in 10 innings with 12 strikeouts. The overall numbers don’t stand out, but Roupp’s dazzling 2.11 xERA and 1.79 FIP indicate brighter days await.
In Roupp's last outing, he went six innings in a loss to the Reds, which is major improvement from his four innings in his season opener.
I'm buying into the advanced numbers on Roupp. He looks really, really good. But facing this tough Phillies lineup is his toughest test to date.
I have some very high hopes for the Giants offense. If you told me the Giants would have a 103 wRC+ (16th in MLB) with their high-paid shortstop Willy Adames having a 54 wRC+, I'd be stunned. Once Adames starts hitting, the Giants' offense will be a force.
Perhaps the main culprit for San Francisco treading water without Adames is outfielder Jung Hoo Lee. He went deep to give the Giants a 4-3 lead on Saturday versus the Yankees and homered on Friday as well. Lee boasts a 179 wRC+ with just a 14% K rate. He's developing into a force in the upper portion of the Giants order.
Phillies Betting Preview: Regression Looming for Walker
Taijuan Walker is slowly but surely earning the trust of Phillies fans again. It's almost impossible for Walker to post an ERA over 7.00 in 83 innings like he did in 2024. Walker hasn't just improved from last year, but he has yet to surrender a run in 10 2/3 innings.
I still don't trust Walker, though. He's not a strikeout pitcher, posting a 7.59 K/9 and issuing too many walks with a 3.38 BB/9. The one glaring difference in Walker's profile is his HR/9 dipping from an absurdly high 2.58 to zero homers so far. He'll eventually allow some homers, but allowing over two per nine is crazy high. Water will find its level and for Walker, that means allowing some homers.
Regression will hit Walker like a ton of bricks — posting a 3.60 xERA and 4.34 xFIP. We can revisit the last number of years that indicate that, at best, Walker is a decent innings eater.
Similar to the Giants, the Phillies have some high-paid players underperforming. It's not as drastic as Adames hitting below replacement level, but Bryce Harper has a 122 wRC+ and Trea Turner is at 108. The big reason is that Harper has just two homers and Turner has one. That's a very low total through two weeks given that pair's track record of hitting 25+ bombs a year.
Still, the Phillies have the 11th-best offense in MLB, posting a 108 wRC+. The two things the Phillies excel at offensively is limiting the strikeouts (21% K rate) while walking over 11% of the time. That puts the pressure on the pitcher to make pitches to induce soft contact instead of hunting for chases.
Giants vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm eyeing the regression here for Walker. By all accounts, Roupp has been unlucky and Walker is the polar opposite. That's not everything, but I also believe in the Giants' offense just as much as the Phillies, so I'll side with the pitcher I have more faith in.
The Giants also hold an edge versus right-handed pitching, with a 108 wRC+ compared to the Phillies' 102. The Giants strike out 24% of the time, but Walker not inducing swing and misses should lead to a better approach from the road team, leading to more chances to do damage.
Pick:Giants ML (+100; play to -115)
Moneyline
I like the Giants in this one.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm betting San Francisco against the spread, but don't have play on the run line.
Over/Under
I also don't see value on the total.
