The San Diego Padres (17-11) host the San Francisco Giants (19-10) on April 29, 2025 in an NL West showdown. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-BA and Padres TV.
Find my Giants vs Padres prediction and pick on the first five innings (F5) below.
Giants vs Padres Prediction
- Giants vs Padres picks: First Five Innings Under 3.5 (-110, BetMGM | Play to -125)
My Giants vs Padres best bet is on the First Five Innings (F5) Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7 +100o / -120u | -122 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 7 +100o / -120u | +102 |
Giants vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Logan Webb (SF) | Stat | RHP Nick Pivetta (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 4-1 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 1.98/2.94 | ERA /xERA | 1.20/2.79 |
| 1.83/2.12 | FIP / xFIP | 2.20/3.39 |
| 1.10 | WHIP | 0.77 |
| 23.8% | K-BB% | 20.7% |
| 55.7% | GB% | 35.6% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 108 | Location+ | 111 |
Giants vs Padres Preview, Prediction
Giants Betting Preview: Can Webb Ground Padres?
Logan Webb has hit a few speed bumps so far in 2025, but the prevailing story is one of excellence.
The right-hander has found a ton of strikeouts out of nowhere, bringing his punchout rate to 30.8% through six outings, which is well above his career average of 22.4%.
However, it's fair to question if he can keep this up.
Webb's chase rate is way down from an elite 33% a season ago, and while his whiffs are up, it's not as if they're in unheard-of territory. He's been fortunate to face the Reds and Angels in a third of his starts, and now he'll have to face a Padres team that does a great job of not striking out.
With that said, this is the type of matchup we love for Webb.
The Padres may not hand Webb the same number of strikeouts here, but they rank sixth among MLB lineups in OPS against ground-ball pitchers, compared to first against fly-ball pitchers. A team that will swing and put the ball in play is generally at a disadvantage against a player like Webb, who induces groundball contact, and that's only made worse by the fact that his hard-hit rate has decreased by four points year over year while his Expected Slugging Percentage allowed stands at a cool .343.
I'm not treating Webb like the contact master he's been in the past, but he's still outstanding—and good enough to take advantage of this matchup.
Padres Betting Preview: Pivetta's Power Arm is Key
Nick Pivetta stands in stark comparison to Webb, an all-or-nothing arm who will hunt strikeouts and allow a ton of fly balls in the process.
Generally speaking, I've been a big fan of Pivetta, and the fact that he's found a way through his control issues in the past two seasons with a sub-7% walk rate is only making me love him more.
Pivetta's strikeout rate is somehow lower than Webb's, but at 27%, he's tracking just the same as he has in the past few seasons. He's now pitching in a much friendlier environment in San Diego, where he'll be afforded more flyouts, and with that, his Expected Batting Average allowed has tumbled to .204 through five outings.
The Giants sit just 21st among MLB lineups in OPS against fly-ball pitchers, seven spots lower than their rank against ground-ballers. Much like the situation on the other side of the ball, it makes perfect sense. San Francisco is power-hungry and feasts on strike-throwers who look for outs on contact, but Pivetta is more of a power arm who knows how to suppress power bats like the ones he'll see.
Giants vs Padres Prediction, F5 Pick Analysis
Unfortunately, this isn't a classic case where we can take advantage of a bad number and use our contrarianism to find a play on an Under. The total is set around 6.5 or 7 at most shops, so we'll have to get creative.
I'm such a big believer in both of these matchups for our respective pitchers that I'll go under the short first five innings total.
Pivetta should have a field day baiting the big-swinging Giants into plenty of flyouts in his spacious park, and with San Francisco sitting near the bottom 10 of the league in strikeout rate, he may juice up his numbers in that column as well.
On the other side, while Webb may not sustain his punchout numbers against a Padres team that has been well-disciplined, it shouldn't matter much. Teams like San Diego, which swings at plenty of strikes, commonly struggle against the masters of inducing outs on contact, and Webb is still one.
Trust in the splits we laid out above and ride both of these arms to a win.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 3.5 (-110, BetMGM | Play to -125)
Moneyline
The sharp money is hitting the Padres here, and I'd have to agree with that side.
While I like both arms on the bump, San Diego's offense is far better and will, at the very least, put more runners on base.
Run Line (Spread)
The Padres are 3-1 to the run line as home underdogs and 12-4 overall at home.
On the flip side, San Francisco is 12-5 ATS when laying runs.
Over/Under
The sharps are aligned on the Under here, and while it's commanded just 17% of the bets, it makes up 25% of the cash.
