As of early Saturday afternoon, it appears we may get a full MLB slate today, beginning with the Mets vs. Yankees in their Subway Series at 1:05 p.m. ET and Twins vs. Tigers in a double-header at 1:10 p.m. ET.
Our experts are looking further down the oddsboard at three games offering value later this evening. Check out the picks we're making for the following matchups:
- Giants vs. Diamondbacks (8:10 p.m. ET)
- Padres vs. Rockies (8:10 p.m. ET)
- Mariners vs. Angels (9:40 p.m. ET)
Note: Odds as of Saturday at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Check out our free MLB odds page, which automatically surfaces the best line for every game.
Advanced Stats Glossary
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.
BJ Cunningham: Giants Moneyline (+125) vs. Diamondbacks
Arizona's Luke Weaver has been an unmitigated disaster this season. He’s accumulated an ERA of 7.77 and an xFIP of 4.89 through his first 24.1 innings of 2020. Weaver's main issue has been his fastball, which has allowed a .345 batting average and .454 wOBA to opposing batters.
Additionally, the Diamondbacks bullpen has also been a disaster, reporting a 5.36 ERA. Arizona's relievers have combined for a 4.99 xFIP, which ranks in the bottom-five of MLB.
San Francisco's offense started the season slowly, but the Giants have really turned it on over the past two weeks. In San Francisco's past 13 games, the Giants have hit 20 home runs, which has contributed to a .346 wOBA and 121 wRC+.
Mike Yastrzemski has been on fire this season, accumulating a .416 wOBA with seven home runs and 23 RBIs. San Francisco has been most successful against fastballs and changeups, which will match up well against Weaver, since those are his main two pitches.
I don’t think the Diamondbacks should be favored with Weaver on the mound, so I am going to back the Giants at +125.
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Danny Donahue: Padres vs. Rockies Over 12.5 (-120)
- Odds available at DraftKings [Bet Now]
- First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
A Coors Field matchup doesn’t need a whole lot of extra help when it comes to offense. Getting to 13 runs, though? That might require a little boost.
Luckily, we have one tonight.
The Denver wind is expecting to be blowing straight out to center/right-center at 8-11 mph throughout the course of the game, giving the over a slight — but consistent — historical edge.
Since 2005, games with wind blowing out at speeds of 8 mph or more have hit the over at a 55% rate on a sample of over 1,700 games. And with two offenses that rank fifth (COL) and 11th (SD) in fly-ball percentage this season, I’ll take my chances on a gifted homer pushing this game over a high total.
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Collin Wilson: Mariners vs. Angels Over 8.5 (-105)
- Odds available at DraftKings [Bet Now]
- First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
My projection on the total for tonight’s game is 8.9, lending value to the over 8.5. The wind will be blowing slightly to straight center at The Big A, while umpire Alfonso Marquez calls balls and strikes. Marquez has been an "over"-umpire for most of his career, with a 234-201 record for over bettors and a runs per game average of 8.7.
Justus Sheffield takes the mound for the Mariners after giving up four earned in three innings pitched against the Angels to open the season. Sheffield reports an xFIP of 3.94 — 0.43 points higher than his 3.51 ERA — which could indicate regression.
The same could be true for the Angels' sticks: Anaheim has the second-lowest BABIP in the majors to left-handed pitching. Another contributing factor is the bullpen for each squad. Los Angeles and Seattle rank 24th and 29th respectively in combined xFIP for their relievers. Only the Phillies bullpen gives up more home runs than the Mariners.
