We have a jam-packed Saturday slate — with plenty of quality arms on the bump — but I've zoned in on two guys who are in great spots to mow down their opposition.
So, let's find out who they are and how we're betting on them.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Ross Stripling Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-152/+115)
| Tigers @ Blue Jays | |
| First Pitch | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| Best Line: -152 | Sugarhouse |
Ross Stripling is not your prototypical strikeout artist.
However, this matchup against Detroit is too juicy to pass up. The Tigers have the eighth-highest strikeout rate in the majors entering today, and they can make Stripling look very good.
The implied odds are certainly not in our favor with Stripling, as he's gone over this total in just five of his 14 starts, which gives us odds of +180 that he'll go over again. However, Detroit's high strikeout rate and a bit of recent history help close that gap.
Back in June, Stripling tossed six shutout innings against the Tigers, allowing one hit and striking out four. I don't expect him to repeat that performance, but if we can get five innings from him, we should have a great chance of cashing here.
It also helps when you have projections in your favor. According to our Action Labs database, Stripling's strikeout prop has the second-highest edge on the slate. It has him pegged for over five strikeouts, which is tremendous value on the total.
Pick: Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-152)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Clayton Kershaw Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-109/-122)
| Dodgers @ Rockies | |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line -109 | Sugarhouse |
The market is giving the Rockies way too much credit here against arguably the best left-handed pitcher of our generation.
Clayton Kershaw has been phenomenal this season. I get that this game is at Coors Field and the Rockies are the No. 2 team in baseball against left-handed pitching, but this line is too low.
Kershaw has gone over this total in 61.5% of his starts this year. That gives us implied odds of -160 that he'll go over again.
This line is partially based on his performance at Coors earlier this season. In June, Kershaw got roughed up by the Rockies, giving up six earned runs on nine hits and walking four batters. However, he still punched out four hitters.
So, if Kershaw can strike out four Rockies in his worst outing of the season, what does his strikeout total look like if he has even a decent outing?
Our Action Labs projections agree here, as well. They have him projected for 5.8 strikeouts, which is much closer to his average of 6.2 strikeouts per start.
Take the value on Kershaw here.
Pick: Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-109)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
