The Boston Red Sox (14-12) host the Seattle Mariners (13-11) on Thursday, April 24, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Thursday's Mariners-Red Sox game features the most compelling pitching matchup of the slate as Bryan Woo takes on Garrett Crochet.
Find my Mariners vs Red Sox prediction and pick for Thursday below.
My Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction
- Mariners vs Red Sox picks: Red Sox -1.5 (+130 | Play to +125)
My Mariners vs Red Sox best bet is Red Sox -1.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Red Sox Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8 -115o / -105u | +140 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8 -115o / -105u | -170 |
Mariners vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Bryan Woo (SEA) | Stat | LHP Garrett Crochet (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 3.12 / 3.22 | ERA /xERA | 1.13 / 2.82 |
| 3.03 / 3.86 | FIP / xFIP | 2.18 / 3.18 |
| 1.04 | WHIP | 0.91 |
| 15.4% | K-BB% | 20.3% |
| 39.5% | GB% | 46.2% |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 112 |
| 114 | Location+ | 93 |
Tony Sartori's Mariners vs Red Sox Preview
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Woo There It Is
Right-hander Bryan Woo takes the mound for the Seattle Mariners in this matchup. Although Woo is a fine pitcher, he is the inferior one in this matchup.
The Boston Red Sox counter with left-hander Garrett Crochet. Woo trails Crochet in FanGraphs wins above replacement (fWAR), ERA, expected ERA (xERA), fielding independent pitching (FIP), expected FIP (xFIP), WHIP, and strikeout-to-walk percentage (K-BB%).
Following Woo is an untrustworthy bullpen. This season, Seattle’s relief staff ranks in the bottom half of the league in FIP, xFIP, and wins above replacement (WAR).
This pitching staff may also have difficulty generating run support, considering that Crochet is on the mound for Boston. Through 34 combined career plate appearances against Crochet, the current Mariners roster owns a .202 expected batting average (xBA).
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: A Strong Pitching Corps
Crochet has been solid over the past few seasons, but he has truly elevated his game this year. Through five starts, the southpaw is 2-1 with a 1.13 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest further dominance is likely. Crochet ranks in the top third of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Following Crochet is a reliable bullpen. Entering this matchup, Boston’s relief staff ranks sixth in FIP, 12th in xFIP, and fifth in WAR.
Run support also shouldn’t be an issue for this pitching staff. This year, the Red Sox rank in the top 10 in runs per game, hits per game, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.
Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
Boston is the team to back Thursday. It has the stronger starting pitcher, bullpen, and lineup.
Finally, the trends support a look at the run line. The Red Sox have won four of the past six meetings between these two teams, with three of those four wins coming by at least a four-run margin.
Additionally, 10 of Boston’s 14 wins this season have come by at least a two-run differential.
Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (+130 | Play to +125)
Moneyline
I like Boston to win, but find more value in the run line.
Run Line (Spread)
As mentioned, I'm betting Red Sox run line at +130.
My Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (+130)
Over/Under
I lean toward the Over, but don't want to fade Crochet against Seattle.
Mariners vs Red Sox Betting Trends
