The Houston Astros (86-72) host the Seattle Mariners (81-77) on Wednesday afternoon at Minute Maid Park. First pitch for this series finale is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. You can find my Mariners vs Astros prediction, pick and best bet for September 25 below.
The Astros are the AL West champions and are set to hand the ball to left-hander Yusei Kikuchi against a Mariners squad that will be countering with right-hander George Kirby. The Mariners are 2 1/2 games out of the final AL wild-card spot — find out why I think they can keep their MLB playoff hopes alive on Wednesday.
Mariners vs Astros Predictions
- Mariners vs Astros picks: Mariners Moneyline (+116 | Play to +110)
My Mariners vs. Astros best bet is on Seattle's moneyline, where I see value at +116. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Odds, Prediction
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-140 | 7 -125o / +105u | -1.5 +122 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+118 | 7 -125o / +105u | +1.5 -145 |
- Mariners-Astros moneyline: Mariners -140 | Astros +118
- Mariners-Astros total: Over/under 7 (-125o / +105u)
- Mariners-Astros spread: Mariners -1.5 (+122) | Astros +1.5 (-145)
Mariners at Astros Probable Starting Pitchers
| RHP George Kirby (SEA) | Stat | LHP Yusei Kikuchi (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-11 | W-L | 9-9 |
| 4.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.3 |
| 3.60 / 3.45 | ERA /xERA | 4.19 / 3.84 |
| 3.30 / 3.60 | FIP / xFIP | 3.54 / 3.23 |
| 1.08 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 20% | K-BB% | 21.8% |
| 42% | GB% | 42.2% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 106 | Location+ | 101 |
Mariners vs Astros Preview Predictions for Wendesday
Mariners Betting Preview: Trust Kirby to Succeed
Kirby has put together another strong campaign in his third MLB season. The former first-round draft pick is 13-11 through 32 starts with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even stronger as the right-hander boasts a 3.45 xERA and ranks in the top half of the league in xBA, walk rate and hard-hit rate. That success is likely to continue against Houston, a team Kirby has dominated throughout his young career.
Through six outings against the Astros, Kirby is 1-0 with a 1.56 ERA.
Following Kirby is a bullpen that ranks eighth in the league in xFIP.
Astros Betting Preview: Fade Houston After Tuesday's Clincher
Speaking of relief staffs, Houston's trails Seattle's in both FIP and xFIP.
That is not the only pitching disadvantage the Astros possess in this matchup. Kikuchi sports a 4.19 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP through 31 starts this season.
He also ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, there is no denying that Houston boasts one of the best lineups in baseball. With that said, this group has historically struggled against Kirby.
Through 121 combined career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Astros lineup possesses a .214 BA, a .231 SLG and a .212 wOBA.
Mariners vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
The pitching edge in this matchup clearly goes to Seattle. Kirby outranks Kikuchi in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
On the other hand, the Mariners' bullpen outranks the Astros' in both FIP and xFIP.
That just leaves the hitting, which would be Houston's advantage. With that said, the Mariners possess a higher BA, SLG and wOBA against Kikuchi than the Astros do against Kirby.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline (+116 | Play to +110)
Moneyline
I'm betting the Mariners' moneyline in this game.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm going to pass on the run line. While I like Seattle +1.5, I have no interest in laying the two dollars.
Over/Under
I'm also going to pass on the over/under. There are too many contradicting variables for my liking in this market.
Mariners vs Astros Betting Trends
Mariners Betting Trends
- Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Mariners are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Mariners' last 5 games
Astros Betting Trends
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Astros' last 5 games
- The totals have gone UNDER in 43 of Astros' 79 last games at home
Mariners-Astros Game Info: How to Watch, Start Time, Channel, More
| Location: | Minute Maid Park |
| Date: | Wednesday, September 25, 2024 |
| Time: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | MLB Network |
Mariners vs Astros Weather
