The Seattle Mariners (64-61) will face the Los Angeles Dodgers (73-52) on Monday night at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. The latest MLB odds list the Dodgers as -142 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (-114o / -106u). Seattle has lost five of six games on its road trip thus far against a pair of teams below .500, and now holds just a 22.7% chance of claiming a postseason berth per FanGraphs.
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction
Dodgers' pitcher Gavin Stone was able to bounce back from three ugly starts in a row last time out in Milwaukee, and he will have a good chance to build on that today versus a Mariners offense which is still scuffling despite deadline acquisitions. Let's get to my Mariners vs Dodgers prediction for Monday night.
Mariners vs. Dodgers Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 8 -114 / -106 | -1.5 -184 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-142 | 8 -114 / -106 | +1.5 +152 |
Mariners vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Bryan Woo (SEA) | Stat | RHP Gavin Stone (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | W-L | 10-5 |
| 2.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 2.06/2.23 | ERA /xERA | 3.63/4.08 |
| 2.72/3.77 | FIP / xFIP | 4.04/4.20 |
| 0.85 | WHIP | 1.28 |
| 17.2% | K-BB% | 12.4% |
| 42.9% | GB% | 43.3% |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 108 | Location+ | 103 |
Nick Martin's Mariners vs Dodgers Preview
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Julio Rodriguez Trending in the Right Direction
The Mariners enter this game averaging only 3.97 runs per game this season, and rank 20th in wRC+ over the entirety of the year. Since the trade deadline they still rank 18th with a wRC+ of 96, have struck-out more than any other team in baseball, and rank 22nd in hard-hit rate. They have scored three or less runs in nine of 16 games during that span.
Many of those games came with Julio Rodriguez still out of the lineup, who does look to be trending in the right direction batting 7-for-20 at the plate throughout the road trip.
The Mariners have been significantly more effective against right-handed pitching of late. Since July 1, they rank 13th with a wRC+ of 105 in 1014 plate appearances against RHP.
Woo has remained in strong form over his last six starts, with an ERA of 2.41 across 32 1/3 innings of work. He holds an xFIP of 3.43 in that span, and allowed an xBA of .212. Over his last three starts he has thrown strikes 73% of the time, and walked just one of 77 batters.
He has also been highly effective away from the pitcher friendly confines of T-Mobile park, as on the road this season he has pitched to an ERA of 2.52 with a WHIP of 0.99.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Gavin Stone Tailing Off
Gavin Stone's form has tailed off considerably of late, though he has faced a tougher than average slate of opponents. Since July 1, Stone has pitched to an ERA of 6.12 with a FIP of 5.58, and an xFIP of 4.47. He has allowed an xBA of .290 in that span, and seen his strikeout rate dip to 17%.
The Dodgers offense has been effective against right-handed pitching of late with a 10th ranked wRC+ of 112 since July 1. They have struck-out 24.6% of the time in that span though, and will offer a slightly less potent look with Freddie Freeman remaining on the sidelines in this matchup.
Mariners vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis: Seattle Moneyline
Woo has been one of the better pitchers in the AL this season, and features a highly convincing underlying profile. It has been more than simply dominating in the league's most pitcher friendly ballpark too, and he should give the Mariners a strong chance of grinding out a victory Monday.
Stone gets a good matchup to get right here, but his form has tailed off pretty significantly of late and Woo appears to be pitching at a considerably higher level right now. The Mariners bullpen should be able to pitch at a high level moving forward too, and should give Seattle a good chance in this matchup if Woo can help the team hold an early lead.
At moneyline odds of +120, I think we are getting the right number to try and back Woo and the Mariners grinding out an important victory in this matchup. At anything better than +115, I would bet the Mariners to win this game outright.
Moneyline History
| Mariners | Dodgers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 64-61 | 73-52 |
| Home | 37-26 | 38-21 |
| Away | 27-35 | 34-30 |
| Favorite | 45-37 | 67-40 |
| Underdog | 19-23 | 5-10 |
Total (Over/Under) History
| Mariners | Dodgers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 55-66-4 | 64-57-2 |
| Home | 21-40-2 | 34-24-1 |
| Away | 34-26-2 | 30-33-1 |
| Favorite | 33-48-1 | 58-47-2 |
| Underdog | 21-18-3 | 6-9 |
