The Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics will face off in Oakland on Tuesday night. The two AL West rivals will play the second of a four-game series after Oakland won by a score of 5-4 on Monday.
Seattle (69-69) is now six games out of the AL West lead and 5.5 games behind the last wild card slot as they have lost their last three games. At this point, it’s do-or-die, as they will need to go on a run if they wish to have a shot at the postseason.
Oakland (60-78) is essentially eliminated from playoff contention and is playing for pride at this point. They are 15 games out of the AL West lead and 14.5 games out of a wild card spot.
The Mariners are favored tonight at -155 on the moneyline in a game with an over/under of 8.5 runs (+100/-120). Let’s take a look at my Mariners vs. Athletics predictions and best bets for Tuesday, September 3rd.
Mariners vs Athletics Prediction
- Mariners vs A's picks: Mariners -0.5 in First 5 Innings
My Mariners-Athletics best bet is on Seattle to cover the runline in the first 5 innings. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Athletics Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 8 -115o / -105u | -154 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -126 | 8 -115o / -105u | +130 |
Mariners vs Athletics Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Luis Castillo (SEA) | Stat | RHP J.T. Ginn (OAK) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-12 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 3.65 / 3.93 | ERA /xERA | 5.19 / 3.16 |
| 3.87 / 3.79 | FIP / xFIP | 6.06 / 4.12 |
| 1.17 | WHIP | 1.04 |
| 18.0% | K-BB% | 11.1% |
| 39.7% | GB% | 60.9% |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 105 | Location+ | 98 |
Cody Goggin’s Mariners vs Athletics Preview
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Hard Hitting on Both Sides
Luis Castillo will get the nod for Seattle tonight. The veteran right-hander has a 3.65 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 165⅓ innings pitched this season. Castillo sports a 3.93 xERA and 3.79 xFIP as his results have largely been in line with what would be expected based on his peripherals.
Castillo has a whiff rate that ranks in the 55th percentile among qualified pitchers and a strikeout rate that ranks in the 64th percentile. He has a 6.6% walk rate as he has well above average control at this point in his career.
Castillo has struggled at times with allowing hard contact. He ranks in the 23rd percentile in hard hit rate allowed, 37th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and 29th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. His 41.3% ground ball rate is just slightly below league average but has still been passable.
Seattle’s offense ranks 20th in wRC+, 28th in wOBA, 29th in SLG, 25th in OBP, and 22nd in ISO this year. They have the 4th-highest walk rate in the league but also the highest strikeout rate.
The Mariners rank 28th in ground ball rate this season as they are often able to elevate the ball. Seattle is 8th in hard hit rate, 7th in barrel rate, and 8th in average exit velocity.
They have been better on the road this season, ranking 15th in wRC+, 18th in wOBA, and 14th in ISO away from T-Mobile Park.
Oakland Athletics Betting Preview: Rookie Move
J.T. Ginn will get the start for the Athletics. The rookie has made three appearances at the Major League level and has just one start so far. In this single start, he allowed four runs over five innings with four strikeouts against the Cincinnati Reds last week.
In Ginn’s small sample we don’t have too much to go off of. He has a Stuff+ of 102 and Location+ of 98 to this point, both right around league average. Ginn has been able to generate an insane 35.7% whiff rate but this has resulted in only a 22.2% strikeout rate so far. This strikeout rate falls more in line with his minor league track record so I believe that to be more indicative of where he will be going forward compared to that inflated whiff rate.
Ginn is a sinker-slider pitcher that relies on ground balls. He has a 60.9% ground ball rate so far in the big leagues and typically averages a rate in the low 50%s.
Oakland has been better than they were expected to be on offense this year. They are 12th in wRC+, 20th in wOBA, and 9th in ISO, despite being considered one of the worst teams coming into the season. The Athletics have the 10th-best walk rate but the 6th-worst strikeout rate in the league.
The A’s have the 10th-lowest ground ball rate this year. They rank 12th in hard hit rate, 5th in barrel rate, and 6th in average exit velocity.
Mariners vs Athletics Prediction, Betting Analysis
J.T. Ginn doesn’t have a large Major League body of work, but the indication is that he is going to be a groundball heavy pitcher without much swing and miss capability. For this reason, I’m high on Seattle’s offense tonight as they will be able to hit the ball hard and put the ball in play often against the rookie. The Mariners don’t hit many ground balls and should be able to neutralize Ginn’s main strength.
Oakland’s offense is similarly built, but I prefer Castillo between these two starters, for good reason. Castillo may allow a decent amount of hard contact, but he has enough swing-and-miss stuff to have success against this A’s offense and he also avoids walking batters, which will help him overall.
My favorite bet on this matchup is taking the Mariners on the road for the first five inning runline at -115, as I do believe there is some value here.
Pick: Seattle Mariners F5 Over -0.5 (-115, bet to -120)
Moneyline
The A’s have played almost .500 ball at home. They are 34-35 this season when playing in Oakland but just 26-43 when on the road. Seattle has struggled on the road, posting a 27-42 record away from T-Mobile Park.
These two bullpens are relatively equal but Oakland’s unit has been better this season. The Athletics rank 6th in bullpen ERA while Seattle is 12th. Oakland is also 10th in bullpen FIP compared to 18th for Seattle.
I don’t love playing the full game on either side of this matchup and would prefer to stick with the F5 lines.
Run Line (Spread)
The Athletics are 39-30 at home this season against the spread and 75-63 ATS overall. Seattle is 27-42 ATS on the road and a dismal 59-79 ATS overall.
I don’t have a lean on the full game spread in this matchup either. At plus money I wouldn’t mind taking Seattle as they should have the better starting pitcher in this matchup and Ginn is relatively unknown at this point, but I wouldn’t recommend playing this either direction.
Over/Under
Oakland overs are 32-37 at home this season, but Mariners games are 38-28-3 to the over when they are on the road.
At 8.5 runs, I would lean towards the over in this game. Castillo is a reliable pitcher, but there is always a chance of him getting hit hard by this capable Athletics’ lineup. On the other side, Ginn is a rookie and would be facing a challenge in a Seattle team that will put the ball in play against him.
This isn’t my favorite bet of the game but the full game over is in play here for me.
Mariners vs Athletics Betting Trends
- 80% of the bets and 45% of the money are on the Mariners on the moneyline.
- 74% of the bets and 91% of the money are on the over.
- 89% of the bets and 96% of the money are on the Mariners to cover the run line.
Mariners Betting Trends
- Mariners are 2-3 in their last 5 games
- Mariners are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Mariners are 27-42 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Mariners' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 24 of Mariners' 69 last games at home
Athletics Betting Trends
- Athletics are 2-3 in their last 5 games
- Athletics are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Athletics are 36-33 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Athletics' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 32 of Athletics' 69 last games at home
