Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies Predictions, Picks & Odds (8/3)
For the first time this season, it feels like the Phillies are going through meaningful adversity. After being pummeled 10-2 by the Mariners in the Friday series opener at T-Mobile Park, they have now dropped five straight games.
The Mariners' deadline acquisitions were excellent on Friday — Justin Turner, Randy Arozarena and Victor Robles combined for five hits and five RBI's.
Philadelphia is expected to lose its sixth straight matchup today, according to the latest MLB odds, as Orion Kerkering will be used as an opener and lead into Kolby Allard to take on Bryce Miller of the Mariners. Let's break down my Mariners vs Phillies prediction for Saturday.
Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds & Predictions
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-115 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -190 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-105 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +160 |
Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Bryce Miller (SEA) | Stat | LHP Kolby Allard (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-7 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 1.70 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 3.46/4.12 | ERA /xERA | 6.75/4.69 |
| 3.84/3.98 | FIP / xFIP | 5.91/4.91 |
| 1.03 | WHIP | 1.50 |
| 16.6% | K-BB% | 5.9% |
| 37.8% | GB% | 50% |
| 110 | Stuff+ | 68 |
| 102 | Location+ | 109 |
Nicholas Martin's Mariners vs Phillies Prediction & Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Destined to Bounce Back?
It is going to be interesting to see what response the Phillies offer throughout their upcoming stretch of play, as it has now become a fairly large sample of modest results. These stretches happen to every side and the roster holds no significant flaws. However, the one knock against the Phillies in the first half was just how soft the schedule was.
They haven't exactly quieted any naysayers with their recent results at the plate, but it's hard to criticize a team sitting at 65-44 too greatly.
Over the last month of action the Phillies have hit to a 21st ranked wRC+ of 102. Their 0.36 BB/K in that span ranks 20th, and they rank 23rd with a 30.8% hard-hit rate. It's been a particularly rough stretch of results against right-handed pitching, as they have hit to a wRC+ of 90 with an OPS of .693. They have struck-out 24.5% of the time, and own a hard-hit rate of just 29.2%.
It was far from ideal for Friday's starter Tyler Phillips to manage only four outs on Friday, as the Phillies will likely need four or more innings covered after Kerkering and Allard both come out of this matchup.
Kerkering has pitched to a 2.21 ERA across 40 and 2/3 innings this season, but has been used exclusively to record four outs or less. He features a stellar Stuff+ rating of 127, with a Location+ rating of 102. He holds an xFIP of 3.01, and an xERA of 3.40. Kerkering should set up well as a good opener to help handle the toughest bats in Seattle's lineup, and prevent those batters from seeing Allard an extra time.
Allard has pitched to a 5.60 ERA across 72 and 1/3 innings of work in Triple-A this season. He holds a WHIP of 1.60 and a SO/W of 2.30.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Trending Upward
The Mariners have arrived at 58-53 despite some of the worst splits in most key batting categories this season, so it makes sense that they brought in some reinforcements at the deadline. Arozarena could provide a significant boost to the lineup if he finds his top form, but has been a clear disappointment thus far with a slug-rate .401. Turner falls into a similar category with just a .371 slug-rate and .720 OPS, but did heat up at the ends his Blue Jays tenure.
The Mariners bolster an improved run of play offensively recently, as over the last month they have hit to a 19th ranked wRC+ of 103. They have struck-out 26.6% of the time in that span, and own a 31.3% hard-hit rate.
Miller enters this matchup in the midst of a strong run of play. Over the last five games he has pitched to an ERA of 2.10, with a 2.83 FIP and 3.86 xFIP. He has struck-out 7.20 batters per nine in that span, and allowed a .259 xBA. He has pitched to an ERA of 1.88 at home this season, and allowed a slug-rate of .283.
Mariners vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis: Total Too High
The Phillies offense certainly has more to give than we have seen of late, but this presents as a tough spot to get right at the plate. Miller's stuff suggests he should be a far better than average starter, and he has been exactly that over the last month of action. Miller's underlying results have also been great, and he has been spectacular T-Mobile Park this season.
Philadelphia will have a great chance to get started on the right foot with Kerkering, and feature a solid bullpen behind that. The Allard innings could be a little dicey, but it still feels like this total is giving too much credit to the Mariners offense, currently set at OU 8.5.
Moneyline
| Overall | Home o/u | Away o/u | Favorite o/u | Underdog o/u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 47-59-4 | 17-35-2 | 30-24-2 | 27-42-1 | 19-17-3 |
 | 49-54-5 | 26-30-3 | 23-24-2 | 37-50-4 | 12-4-1 |
The prices look to be accurate and doesn't look to be a side worth betting at this point. I'm not convinced there is anything worth worrying about going on with the Phillies, but they are at clear disadvantage with this starting pitching matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
As with the sides there does not look to be much value with a play on the run-line. One angle worth considering if you were interested in backing the Mariners would be a sprinkle on some alt run-lines, and hoping Allard blows up and then some softer relief options come in to the game.
Over/Under
| overall | home o/u | away o/u | favorite o/u | underdog o/u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47-59-4 | 17-35-2 | 30-24-2 | 27-42-1 | 19-17-3 |
| 49-54-5 | 26-30-3 | 23-24-2 | 37-50-4 | 12-4-1 |
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