All eyes will be on the Seattle Mariners (63-59) and Pittsburgh Pirates (56-64) as they open a three-game interleague series on Friday night at PNC Park. First pitch for this MLB game is set for 6:40 p.m. ET on Apple TV+.
We have an excellent pitching matchup in the Steel City as two pitchers with sub-3 ERAs face off – both in the top-four odds to win the Cy Young Award in their respective leagues. The Pirates turn to rookie Paul Skenes in desperate need to stop the bleeding as they have lost 10 straight games and have seen their playoff hopes wither and die in a matter of 14 days.
The Mariners have desperation on their side too as they give the ball to Logan Gilbert fresh off getting swept by the Detroit Tigers. Seattle has fallen three games back of the Houston Astros in the AL West entering Friday and are holding onto their playoff hopes for dear life.
We have the big names — but will we get a pitcher's duel? Read below for my Mariners vs Pirates prediction and pick — plus the latest MLB odds for this Friday night showdown.
Mariners vs Pirates Odds: Bucs Have Slight Edge
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+105 | 6.5 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -225 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-125 | 6.5 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +180 |
Probable Starting Pitchers Breakdown for Mariners at Pirates
| RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA) | Stat | RHP Paul Skenes (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-8 | W-L | 6-2 |
| 3.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.6 |
| 2.91 / 3.23 | ERA /xERA | 2.25 / 2.61 |
| 3.26 /3.34 | FIP / xFIP | 2.73 / 2.68 |
| 0.87 | WHIP | 0.96 |
| 20.7% | K-BB% | 26.7% |
| 44.7% | GB% | 49.1% |
| 119 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 101 | Location+ | 104 |
Michael Ianniello's Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
Mariners Betting Preview: Smooth Sailing for Logan Gilbert
Seattle has the best pitching staff in baseball and Gilbert leads the way. His 2.91 ERA ranks seventh in the league and fourth in the American League. He has a strikeout rate over 25% and has demonstrated elite command this season with a career-low walk rate.
In 24 starts this season, Gilbert has allowed more than three runs just five times. He has failed to reach the sixth inning just twice. He has allowed one run or fewer in four of his last five starts.
Gilbert throws six pitches but mainly relies on his fastball and slider, more than 60% of his pitches. Both his fastball and slider have been terrific, holding opponents under a .215 average and .285 wOBA.
Seattle has needed more from its offense all season. Randy Arozarena has provided a spark since being acquired at the deadline and Cal Raleigh has been providing the power with five home runs in his last 15 days.
However, this team ranks in the bottom-10 of the league in wOBA and wRC+. Julio Rodriguez has struggled mightily and is now day-to-day with an ankle injury. If Seattle is going to make the postseason, Rodriguez needs to return to superstar form and quickly.
Pirates Betting Preview: Will Paul Skenes Run Out of Gas?
Is there anybody more must-watch already than Skenes? The 22-year-old made his debut in May and has dazzled to a 2.25 ERA through 15 starts. While he is does not qualify for the ERA title due to lack of innings, he would have the lowest ERA in the league if he did.
Skenes has racked up 115 strikeouts in just 92 innings this season. He has a 11.25 K/9 rate, which ranks sixth in the league among starting pitchers. Skenes throws a fastball that averages 99 miles per hour and pairs it with his devastating splinker.
Skenes . Besides his elite strikeout stuff, he also has top-notch command, generates ground balls, and limits hard contact. Opponents are hitting just .205 against Skenes. The big question is just if Skenes will run out of gas.
However, the Pirates offense does appear to be running out of steam. The Buccos rank just 26th in the league in wRC+ since the All-Star break and only two teams have scored fewer runs since the break.
Bryan Reynolds is the only player on Pittsburgh with a wRC+ above 115. Oneil Cruz has been on fire of late as well but it has basically just been the two of them.
Mariners vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis: Pittsburgh Overpriced
Look, betting against Skenes is never fun. He is already one of the best pitchers in the game and you will very likely feel stupid watching him punch out batter after batter.
This is not intended to be a "fade" of Skenes in any way. However, there are a few, let’s call them: yellow flags.
Skenes has already pitched 92 innings in just three months. He has allowed at least two runs in four straight outings. But most concerning has been his velocity. Skenes fastball averaged at least 98.8 miles per hour in his first eight starts. In his last four starts, Skenes fastball velocity has gone from 98.7 to 98.5 to 98.0 to a season-low 97.7 in his last start.
Even if Skenes is brilliant, the Pirates bullpen has been a disaster. Closer David Bednar has been a mess and has a 5.75 ERA on the season. Pittsburgh ranks 29th in reliever xFIP during August.
As good as Skenes is, Gilbert is one of the few pitchers in the league who can match him. Gilbert has allowed one run or fewer in 13 of his 24 outings this year. And as bad as the Mariners offense has been, Pittsburgh is one of the few that can match them. Since the All-Star break Seattle ranks 18th in wRC+ but the Pirates rank just 26th.
Betting against Skenes is not fun at all, but I’ll plug my nose and hope Gilbert can match him today.
Moneyline
These are two elite starting pitchers facing two below-average offenses. I like the value on Seattle as an underdog and would play them at anything above +105.
Run Line (Spread)
Pass.
Over/Under
The under is 17-7 in Gilbert's starts this season. The total is too low for my liking but I wouldn't take an over with these two starting pitchers.
