The Seattle Mariners (3-5) and San Francisco Giants (6-1) continue their three-game interleague series on Saturday, April 5. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 9:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NBCS BA, ROOTNW and can also be streamed on MLB.TV.
The series opener featured 19 combined runs in a topsy-turvy affair that ended in a Giants walk-off win in extra innings, courtesy of Willy Adames. Mariners vs Giants on Saturday features an intriguing starting pitching matchup between young right-hander Bryce Miller and veteran left-hander Robbie Ray.
Find my breakdown of this game and Mariners vs Giants prediction and pick for Saturday night below.
My Mariners vs Giants Prediction
- Mariners vs Giants pick:Over 7.5 (-105) | Play to -115
My Mariners vs Giants best bet is Over 7.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Giants Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -198 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -130 |
Mariners vs Giants Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Bryce Miller (SEA) | Stat | LHP Robbbie Ray (SF) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 4.76/5.30 | ERA /xERA | 5.06/6.70 |
| 4.86/4.27 | FIP / xFIP | 6.86/4.69 |
| 1.41 | WHIP | 0.75 |
| 8.3% | K-BB% | 15% |
| 38.9% | GB% | 40% |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 77 | Location+ | 92 |
Kenny Ducey’s Mariners vs Giants Preview
Mariners Betting Preview: Same Old Problems
The Mariners begun the season in a friendly manner at home, but managed to sputter to a 3-4 record thanks to continued struggles at the dish.
Well, moving parks — even if it meant heading to pitcher-friendly San Francisco — seemed to do the trick after a nine-run outburst on Friday.
Still, this team continues searching for answers with a high 25% strikeout rate and meek .135 Isolated Power (ISO). The good news is that Seattle is at least walking in 12.2% of plate appearances to boost its on-base to .306, but it's once again hitting under the Mendoza Line through eight games.
Bryce Miller would certainly like to see his opponents hitting close to that mark. He held opponents to a .229 Expected Batting Average (xBA) a year ago, but in his first start that number grew to .329 as he was roughed up by the Athletics.
He continues to pitch to a low ground-ball rate, and while that's normally meant a bundle of fly balls, it was line drives that came back at him the most in that one.
The right-hander isn't much of a strikeout pitcher, limiting walks quite well through his three big-league seasons and recording plenty of flyouts at home.
What's happening on contact is of great importance, and generally speaking he's been prone to giving up extra-base hits with his profile but won't give up baserunners with consistency.
Giants Betting Preview: The Rundown on Robbie
Robbie Ray isn't a guy who profiles anywhere the same as Miller.
Ray has been a high-strikeout, high-walk pitcher in his career who found a bit of magic with the Mariners and Giants in recent years. His xBA is well under .220 in the past four seasons, and while last season was abbreviated by injury he still managed to pitch to a low xBA and crucially keep his Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG) down.
The lefty has pitched to a rather average batted-ball profile over his career, but in the back half he's certainly favored pitching to fly balls as he's shifted to more pitcher-friendly parks. That will be worth monitoring here given Seattle was 10th in OPS to ground-ballers a season ago and 14th against fly-ball arms, something that makes sense given the latter tend to hunt strikeouts.
San Francisco has looked rather strong at the dish through the early going, ranking 13th in wRC+ in seven games with a solid .198 ISO, but it's once again looked lost against pitchers who can generate swings and misses with a strikeout rate north of 27%.
Mariners vs Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Giants have had a particularly hard time making contact this season, but that should change with the more contact-oriented Miller on the hill.
This team ranked five spots better in OPS to fly-ball arms last season and should have a chance to remain hot at the dish given the righty's issues in limiting power in the last few seasons.
On the opposite end, I'm a bit concerned for Ray here with his inability to limit walks. Sure, the Mariners haven't hit all that well, but they've remained patient at the dish and with Ray's history in the xSLG department, where he's been most susceptible, a team that reminded us on Friday that it can hit for power could be at it again here.
Seattle should find plenty of walks against Ray if its start is to be believed, and both teams should hit for power against two arms who have allowed plenty of it in the last calendar year.
We saw friendly conditions for offense in San Francisco on Friday, and I expect the same on Saturday night.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-105)
Moneyline
The Giants have cashed the moneyline in five straight and have received plenty of love from sharp bettors so far.
Pick: Pass.
Run Line (Spread)
San Francisco has begun 5-2 to the run line this season but was just 22-35 as a home favorite a year ago.
Pick: Pass.
Over/Under
The Mariners are just 2-5-1 to the Over this season, but San Francisco is a firm 5-2 with Friday's game soaring over the total.
Pick: Over 7.5.
