Angels vs. Padres Odds
| Angels | +150 |
| Padres | -185 |
| Total | 8.5 (-105 / -115) |
| Date | Wednesday, July 5 |
| Time | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
*Odds via BetMGM as of Wednesday afternoon.
The last matchup of a three-game series between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Angels takes place Tuesday night at Petco Park.
The Padres won the first two games and have scored a combined 18 runs against the Angels.
Tonight, the Angels will throw Patrick Sandoval against the Padres' Seth Lugo.
Our algorithm has identified an edge on a Lugo player prop at BetMGM, and it's expecting the right-hander to struggle against the Angels.
Our models consider quantitative and qualitative factors for every angle of the game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more — to come up with a fair value line for every MLB player prop on the market.
Seth Lugo Player Prop Prediction, Projection
Lugo has been a mainstay in MLB since 2016.
He's in his first season with the Padres after spending seven seasons with the Mets. Through his first four starts this season, he boasted a 2.78 ERA. However, he then struggled with an injury that kept him out for most of June.
After a six-inning performance with zero earned runs against the Reds, Lugo appears to be rounding into form.
The model indicates Lugo's strikeout total for Padres vs. Angels is way too high. BetMGM has set his strikeout total at 5.5 tonight, with +105 to the over and -140 to the under.
Over his past six starts, Lugo has had more than five strikeouts once.
The model predicts Lugo will have 4.4 strikeouts against the Giants. That's good enough for a 12% betting edge on the over.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same size unit for each individual bet.
Pick: Seth Lugo Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
