There are no sure things in sports betting. Locks don't exist. Through smart models, systems and bankroll management, professional bettors can find enough edges to remain profitable over the long haul. Recreational bettors, on the other hand, bet for action and are therefore drawn to popular teams playing in nationally televised games, regardless of the value that wager represents.
While public bettors are certainly excited for next week's Hall of Fame Game and the official start of the NFL preseason, they're still relying on baseball to occupy betting bankrolls for the time being. In fact, based on The Action Network's proprietary number of bets statistic, today's slate is attracting significant action for a Friday in July.
As always, sharp money is also hitting the market, and it doesn't take long to pinpoint tonight's Los Angeles Dodgers-Atlanta Braves game (7:35 p.m. ET) as one that's not only setting up a sharp vs. public showdown, but also has various intangibles supporting the sharp side of this matchup.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Full Sports Betting Glossary
The total for today's Braves-Dodgers game opened at 8 and has received a steady diet of professional 'over' action. Sports Insights' Bet Signals, which track sharp action in real time across the sports betting market, have already triggered two Steam and Reverse Line Moves on the over.
Public betting data tells a very similar story with 69% of tickets playing the under, but a whopping 74% of actual dollars wagered taking the over. Both the Bet Signals and vast bets vs. dollars discrepency explain why this total has moved up to 8.5 at most sportsbooks across the betting market.
>> All odds as of 9:30 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets
In addition, there is a steady 5-6 mph breeze out to center in the forecast, while home plate umpire, Quinn Wolcott, finds 53.5% of his games going over the total.
Public bettors clearly expect an automatic under with Clayton Kershaw on the mound, but professional action and other intangibles prove the value is with the over tonight in Atlanta.
