Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani is on pace for at least 50 home runs and 50 steals. If he does so, he'd be the first player in MLB history to reach both marks.
FanDuel is the only major American sportsbook to post betting odds on whether he'll make history.
As of Wednesday morning, Ohtani has -350 odds to do so, giving him implied odds of just under 78%. You can also bet on him to miss the record at +255, which has implied odds of about 28%.
Not only does FanDuel host its own "Chasing History" subcategory that houses these odds, but on their home page, they have a subsection titled "Ohtani" that links to his individual odds every day.
Shohei Ohtani's 50/50 Odds
| 50/50? | Odds | Chances |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | -350 | 77.78% |
| No | +255 | 28.17% |
Odds are according to FanDuel. Cumulative odds surpass 100% because that's what FanDuel's house vig for this market is.
Ohtani is on pace for roughly 51 homers and 51 stolen bases, extrapolating for previous performances but not accounting for future pitcher matchups, umpires, weather, stadiums and more. This pace has been the case for the entire month of September.
Earlier this month, when he had 46 homers and 46 stolen bases, FanGraphs laid out a roadmap for when it might happen, which incorporates the aforementioned factors and isn't entirely contingent on past performances.
Shohei Ohtani 50/50 Prediction
At the time (Sept. 9), the outlet gave Ohtani a 61.3% chance of obtaining the record for market odds of -159.
Since then, Ohtani has beaten pace slightly. But since FanDuel is the only sportsbook providing this market so far — and because the demographic that bets on these things don't like to fade upside — the "Yes" category might still be overinflated.
There's a more qualitative factor at play insofar that Ohtani will likely be hunting stolen bases down the stretch. The break even mark for a positive EV base stealer is 75%, but he and the Dodgers may eschew that mark in light of history.
Ohtani is also a home run hitter by nature — and he'll be hunting those as well. And homers mean he's not on base to steal. The FanGraphs model acknowledges the difficulty in mapping for stolen bases due to these factors.
Also, manager Dave Roberts will be less inclined to rest Ohtani should the Dodgers clinch the NL West early. That might not matter, anyway, but the Dodgers do have a sizable — at this time of year — 3.5-game lead over the Padres for the division, good for a 92% chance of winning the division (-1150), according to FanGraphs.
But Los Angeles is also two games behind Philadelphia for the No. 1 seed, which would grant the Dodgers home-field advantage throughout the NLDS and NLCS.
If either of these are close, there doesn't seem to be a reason for the Dodgers to rest their best hitter.
In addition, because the Dodgers are playing the majority of their remaining games against out-of-the-postseason competition, opponents may be less motivated to intentionally walk or pitch around him — which could boost his home run projections, but limit his EV in regards to getting on base.
The Dodgers have two games against the Marlins and six games against the Rockies — including three games at the hitter-friendly Coors Field — to close out the season, with a pivotal three-game series at Dodger Stadium vs. the second-place Padres interwoven between.
The most likely contests in which Ohtani may hit the 50/50 mark are against the Padres at home from Sept. 24 to 26 or in their series finale in Denver from Sept. 27 to 29.
