Cardinals vs Reds odds (via Caesars) for Tuesday have the Reds as -130 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (-120o / +100u). First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park.
Erick Fedde will take the mound for St. Louis, while Cincinnati is set to hand the ball to Hunter Greene.
Read my Tuesday MLB betting preview and Cardinals vs. Reds prediction for this National League Central clash below. You can also find the latest MLB odds plus a head-to-head comparison of Fedde and Greene.
Cardinals vs Reds Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Runline | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | +112 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Runline | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | -130 |
Cardinals vs Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Erick Fedde (STL) | Stat | RHP Hunter Greene (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-5 | W-L | 8-4 |
| 2.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.5 |
| 3.28 / 3.87 | ERA /xERA | 2.90 / 2.98 |
| 3.83 / 4.02 | FIP / xFIP | 3.43 / 4.19 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.03 |
| 15.1% | K-BB% | 18.3% |
| 43.6% | GB% | 36.4% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 124 |
| 105 | Location+ | 98 |
Tony Sartori’s Cardinals vs Reds Preview
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview: Cards Lacking Support
Fedde has put together an excellent campaign, posting a 3.28 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through 23 starts. His underlying metrics are equally strong as the right-hander ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
Following Fedde is a strong bullpen that ranks in the top half of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP. However, this pitching staff may struggle to find run support once again.
This season, St. Louis ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, OBP, SLG, OPS, h0me runs and stolen bases. These woes are likely to continue against Greene, a pitcher whom this current Cardinals lineup possesses a mere .197 xBA, .312 xSLG and .287 xwOBA against through 107 combined career plate appearances.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: Greene Remains Dominant
Speaking of Greene, we are now finally starting to see why he was taken second overall in the 2017 MLB Draft. The right-hander is 8-4 through 23 starts this season with a commanding 2.90 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.
Regression is not a concern given that Greene ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. He also enters this game in particularly dominant form, posting a 1.03 ERA over his past seven starts.
This success is likely to continue against St. Louis, a team Greene boasts a 2.67 ERA against over the past five meetings. Like the Cardinals. the Reds' bullpen should be able to support their starting pitcher's start.
Cincinnati ranks in the top nine of the league this season in ERA, FIP and xFIP. However, also like St. Louis, this pitching staff may not receive much run support as the Reds rank in the bottom half of the league in hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS.
Cardinals vs Reds Prediction, Betting Analysis
There is little reason to not like the under in this spot. Fedde and Greene both rank in the top half of the league in xERA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Both bullpens also rank in the top half of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP. Meanwhile, both lineups rank in the bottom half of the league in OBP, SLG and OPS.
Finally, we are catching a particularly good price on under 8.5 at +100 via Caesars, a line that is five cents shorter than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100 at Caesars | Play to -105)
Moneyline
I'm going to pass on the moneyline.
While Greene is better than Fedde, St. Louis outranks Cincinnati in hits per game, BA and OBP.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also going to pass on the run line.
I like the Cardinals at +1.5, but not with how much juice you have to lay in doing so.
Over/Under
Bet the under at 8.5.
