With 26 games left to play, the New York Yankees (79-57) remain entrenched in a close division race with the Baltimore Orioles. New York enters the Sunday matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals (68-68) with just a 1 1/2-game lead in the AL East. The Yankees have played to a record of just 32-27 versus teams below .500, and suffered another loss as a large favorite Saturday.
New York is heavily favored on the moneyline once again in this matchup at -225 (the Cardinals are +185 underdogs), as Nestor Cortes will look to continue his home dominance at Yankee Stadium in a matchup against struggling righty Miles Mikolas. First pitch for Sunday is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET; the game can be seen on MLB Network for out-of-market viewers or ESPN+.
Read my preview for this interleague series finale and find my Cardinals vs Yankees prediction for Sunday, September 1 below.
Cardinals vs Yankees Prediction
Cardinals vs Yankees pick: Over 9 (-110)
My Cardinals-Yankees best bet is on the over, where I see value at a line of -110. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Yankees Odds
| St. Louis Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+185 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -105 |
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-225 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | -1.5 -115 |
- Cardinals-Yankees Moneyline: Cardinals +185 | Yankees -225
- Cardinals-Yankees Total: Over/Under 9.5 (-105o /- 115u)
- Cardinals-Yankees Spread: Cardinals +1.5 (-105) | Yankees -1.5 (-115)
Probable Starters Head-to-Head for Cardinals-Yankees
| RHP Miles Mikolas (STL) | Stat | LHP Nestor Cortes (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-10 | W-L | 8-10 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.7 |
| 5.23/4.41 | ERA /xERA | 3.89/3.71 |
| 4.17/4.17 | FIP / xFIP | 3.86/4.20 |
| 1.26 | WHIP | 1.14 |
| 12.5% | K-BB% | 17.6% |
| 42.2% | GB% | 29.8% |
| 88 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 108 | Location+ | 102 |
Nick Martin’s Cardinals vs Yankees Preview, Prediction
Cardinals Betting Preview: Miles Mikolas Continues to Struggle
Mikolas has pitched to a lot of contact this season with a strikeout rate of just 16.8% and a whiff-rate of just 16.2%, and has generated ground-balls only 42.2% of the time. That should make a matchup against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium far from ideal. He has not been in good form either recently, with an ERA of 5.07 over his last 55 innings, with an xFIP of 4.04.
Opponents hold a two strike miss-rate of just 14% against Mikolas this season, which is the lowest mark of any qualified starter. He has stranded only 63.7% of baserunners this season which likely has been partially due to bad luck on balls in-play, but that concern has been exacerbated by the fact that he holds the lowest strikeout rate of any qualified starter with RISP.
The Cardinals offense has been effective versus left-handed pitching recently. Since the All-Star break St. Louis has hit to a wRC+ of 111 versus LHP, which ranks seventh in MLB. They hold an eight best BB/K in that span, and a 31.4% hard-hit rate. They will remain without a key bat in Willson Contreras in this matchup, who holds an .882 OPS versus lefties as a Catcher this season.
Yankees Betting Preview: Trust Nestor Cortes?
Nestor Cortes enters this matchup in a fairly bad stretch of play, as he has pitched to an ERA of 4.54 in 39 and 2/3 innings since the All-Star break. He holds a WHIP of 1.21 in that span, with an xFIP of 4.62. He has also been hard-hit 40% of the time and seen his strikeout rate dip to 20%.
The Yankees have hit to a wRC+ of 143 against right-handed pitching since the All-Star break, and hold the leagues highest wRC+ against righties this season by a wide margin at 124 (San Diego second at 116). They also hold the top BB/K versus righties, as well as a third best hard-hit rate of 33.9%.
Cardinals vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis: Total Too Low
Mikolas enters this matchup in the midst of an ugly stretch of results, and a matchup at Yankee Stadium does not present as the spot to get right. His stuff rates out poorly and he has continued to allow a ton of solid contact as a result. The Yankees have been the best team in the league against righties this season, and Mikolas provides a great opportunity to get right after yesterday's loss.
Cortes has been absolutely dominant at Yankee Stadium, and for a third straight season features far better results at home. He has had a really excellent stretch of results, but many of his underlying numbers still consistent with his season long form. For what has become a meaningful sample, the Cardinals have been a far better than average side versus left-handed pitching.
A total of 9 looks a little too low for a game set to feature batter friendly conditions at Yankee Stadium. Anything better than -115 is worth a bet on this game to go over 9 runs.
Pick: Over 9 (-110)
Moneyline
| Cardinals | Yankees | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 67-68 | 79-56 |
| Home | 36-32 | 37-29 |
| Away | 31-36 | 42-27 |
| Favorite | 32-34 | 61-47 |
| Underdog | 34-34 | 18-8 |
Over/Under History
| Cardinals | Yankees | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 63-68-4 | 74-57-4 |
| Home | 34-33-1 | 38-27-1 |
| Away | 29-35-3 | 36-30-3 |
| Favorite | 37-29 | 63-43-2 |
| Underdog | 25-39-4 | 11-13-2 |
Cardinals vs Yankees Betting Trends
- The Yankees moneyline is getting 96% of the bets and 92% of the money.
- The over is getting 83% of the bets and 84% of the money.
- 93% of the bets are on the Yankees to cover the spread and 82% of the money.
Cardinals Betting Trends
- The Cardinals are 65-71 against the spread this season
- The Cardinals are 6-4 in their last ten games straight up
- The Cardinals are 29-39 on the road against the spread this season
- The total has gone over in 3 of the Cardinals last five games
Yankees Betting Trends
- The Yankees are 2-3 in their last five games
- The Yankees are 2-3 in their last five games against the spread
- The Yankees are 31-36 at home against the spread
- The total has gone OVER in 2 of the Yankees last 5 games
Cardinals vs Yankees Weather
