On Saturday, Aaron Nola was at his best and led us to a winning day despite Yu Darvish's late-game meltdown.
Now to close out the weekend, we're going right back to those Phillies, as their ace is being mispriced.
Speaking of aces, our other play is a matchup that will feature two aces. However, only one has upside in the strikeout department.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Shane Bieber Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-107/-125)
| Guardians @ Blue Jays | |
| First Pitch | 1:37 p.m. ET |
| Best Line: -107 | Sugarhouse |
The best pitching matchup of the day is in Toronto this afternoon, and we are getting in on the action by backing Shane Bieber.
Bieber has been excellent this season despite giving up more contact than we are used to seeing from him. That uptick in contact has brought his strikeout rate down nearly eight percent this season, but that shouldn't stop him from getting over this total.
This should be a much different outing from when Bieber faced Toronto in May. He gave up seven runs and did not record a strikeout in three innings of work.
The Blue Jays don't strike out all that much — as they enter this matchup 23rd in strikeout rate against righties — but that has brought this total down below Bieber's per start average.
He averages 6.3 strikeouts per start and has gone over this total in 66.7% of his outings this year. That gives us implied odds of -200 that he will go over again.
That is a value we can't pass up.
Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-107)
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Zack Wheeler Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-150)
| Phillies @ Mets | |
| First Pitch | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | Bet365 |
We're going right back to the well here, as a Phillies starter is being underrated for the second consecutive day.
Yes, the Mets are one of the best teams in the league at putting the ball in play, but that does not mean they won't strike out against the game's elite.
Nola had eight punchouts last night over eight innings of work. Zack Wheeler has been just as good as Nola in the strikeout department, as his strikeout rate is only .02 lower than Nola's.
We've also already seen Wheeler go over this total, as he set down seven Mets by strikes during his start against them in May.
That performance is just one of the 14 times he has gone over five strikeouts this season.
As a result, his implied odds of -200 is a massive value when this over is priced at plus money.
Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
