Yesterday was profitable, yet peculiar, as Patrick Sandoval flew over his strikeout prop before we ran into some bad luck with Alec Mills. He started the game, but then left with an injury after seven pitches. Due to the stipulations of the bet, we lost without Boston even being able to face him, essentially.
That's all ancient history now, as this Sunday afternoon, I've pinpointed two players who will be playing at the same time but in different games.
So, let's find out who they are and how we're betting them.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Brandon Woodruff Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
| Brewers @ Pirates | |
| First Pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| Best Line: Brewers -200 | DraftKings |
Brandon Woodruff came off his month-long stint on the injured list with bad intentions for opposing hitters.
In his first start back, he struck out 10 Tampa Bay Rays over five innings of work. The Rays have the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, and now, Woodruff will face the team with the fourth highest-strikeout rate against righties.
Woodruff has already made two starts against Pittsburgh this season and had two very different outings. First, on April 20th, he struck out nine Pirates and allowed only one hit over six shutout innings. Then, six days later, he allowed four runs on seven hits but still struck out six.
So, for this outing, we're going to bank on him middling those two strikeout performances.
After all, the odds for this play should be much higher considering that Woodruff's strikeout rate is in the top nine percent of the majors.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-145)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Juan Soto to Record Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-186/+143)
| Marlins @ Nationals | |
| First Pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| Best Line: Nationals +120 | DraftKings |
This is a rare occasion where we get an elite hitter like Juan Soto to record a hit at a non-juiced price.
Soto is having a down first half, as he enters this game hitting just .226 with 15 homers. However, a great hitter like Soto won't stay cold for long, as his underlying stats are still elite and his xBA is .273.
Today could be the start of a hot streak, as he gets to face a divisional foe that he's had a ton of success against in his career.
Pablo Lopez and Soto have squared off 23 times, and to say Soto has the upper hand may be an understatement. For his career, Soto is 8-for-23 with three doubles and two homers against Lopez.
On top of that, Lopez had begun to regress a bit in June. He allowed 17 runs and 28 hits in 28 2/3 innings in the month of June.
So, given Soto's history against Lopez, Soto's underlying metrics pointing way up and Lopez's recent struggles, this is a tremendous buy-low spot on the Nationals' star this afternoon.
Pick: Over -186
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
