Going against the grain yesterday was a success as MacKenzie Gore set a career-high in strikeouts and blew past his total. Today, we're targeting two pitchers who are in line to have very opposite performances. Just like yesterday, these props are both plus-money, so we're well on our way to a profitable weekend.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Zac Gallen Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | Diamondbacks -150 |
| First Pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| Best Line: | DraftKings |
Zac Gallen entered the season with a clean bill of health and has looked every bit like the ace Arizona traded for thus far. He's allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts and is in line to add another tally in that department today.
Gallen will make his 10th start of the season against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pittsburgh has frozen over after its miraculous sweep of the Dodgers earlier this week and is going to have a rough day against Gallen.
The Diamondbacks' ace is a fastball-heavy pitcher, but he uses it to set up his tremendous change-up and curveball. His offspeed and breaking stuff have been tough to hit as each pitch has a Whiff Rate better than 28 percent.
This season, the Pirates have struggled against secondary pitches as they only have four hitters with a positive Run Value against change-ups and two against curveballs. Lastly, they also have the fourth-highest Strikeout Rate against right-handed pitchers.
Gallen has gone over this total in three of his last five starts, and he should rack up the strikeouts against a young Pittsburgh lineup.
Pick: Over 5.5 (+120)
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Framber Valdez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
| Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals | Astros -225 |
| First Pitch | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line: | DraftKings |
Framber Valdez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball as he enters this start with a 2.57 ERA. However, he's been effective without punching hitters out. Valdez's Groundball Rates have been elite since he debuted as his sinker-heavy arsenal is tailored towards creating soft contact. This season it's been even more apparent as hitters are making more soft contact against him than ever before.
Valdez's Hard-Hit Rate is down 11 percent from last season, but so is his Strikeout Rate, which has dropped two percent from last year and seven percent from 2020.
His opposition will also factor into this matchup as well. The Royals are not a team that strikes out very often. In fact, they have the fourth-lowest Strikeout Rate against left-handed pitching in the majors.
Given how both sides of this matchup are trending in terms of allowing and making contact, it's fairly safe to say Valdez will stay under this total.
Pick: Under 4.5 (+105)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
