Yesterday we swept the board as Hunter Greene and Clayton Kershaw cruised over their strikeouts props without a sweat. To finish the weekend off on a high note, I'm targeting two more starters who should see very different numbers in the box score when it's all said and done.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Ian Anderson Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140)
| Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves | Braves -220 |
| First Pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| Best Line: | DraftKings |
It has been an up-and-down season for Ian Anderson thus far. The 24-year-old righty will enter this start with a 5.09 ERA, but his underlying metrics show that he has performed better than his ERA and is undervalued in his start today.
This season, we've seen a significant drop-off in Anderson's Strikeout Rate. It is sitting at 19.2 percent when it was at 23.2 last year and 29.7 in 2020. While that drop is undoubtedly concerning, he's shown flashes of swing and miss stuff as he's had outings with as many as nine strikeouts this year.
This total is too low for a pitcher with Anderson's ceiling. Yes, the Nationals have the sixth-lowest Strikeout Rate in the majors, but Anderson averages 4.3 strikeouts per start. Furthermore, he won't have to strike out most of this lineup with a total this low. Guys like Nelson Cruz, Yadiel Hernandez, Victor Robles, and Lane Thomas are all strikeout candidates with Strikeout Rates over 22 percent.
Anderson has gone over this total in 10 of his 16 starts, and if we can get five solid innings out of him, he should notch number 11 quite easily.
Pick: Over 3.5 Strikeouts -140
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Zack Greinke Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-145)
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals | Royals -105 |
| First Pitch | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line: | DraftKings |
Zack Greinke's 19th big league season is shaping up to be his worst since 2005. While Greinke has put together an impressive career, we've seen a steep drop off from him this season. He is in the bottom-five percent of all qualified pitchers in every expected statistic and can't miss bats, as his Strikeout Rate is in the bottom one percent of the majors.
Today he will be matched up against a Cleveland team that he hasn't seen since Opening Day. Greinke was solid that day as he only allowed one run on five hits and struck out one in five-plus innings of work. However, Cleveland is much improved since then and has been swinging the bats well of late.
The Guardians have five guys in their lineup with above-average xBA's, and rookie Nolan Jones is red-hot to start his career. On top of that, Cleveland does not strike out much, and it's not like Greinke will be a strikeout threat anyway. The Guardians have the potential to rack up base hits off Greinke. He's allowed an average of 5.9 hits per start this year, and with how hot this Guardians lineup is, they could go over this quickly.
Pick: Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-145)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
