We are 2-2 for the weekend but looking to finish strong as two starters are primed for solid outings today. Our picks are a cross-country road trip as we'll start in Miami and then end in San Francisco. We've got quite a bit to break down, so let's get the wheels turning on this Sunday slate.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Aaron Nola Over 18.5 Pitching Outs (-105)
| Phillies vs. Marlins | Phillies -155 |
| First Pitch | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line: | DraftKings |
Aaron Nola has been a workhorse this season for the Phillies. The 29-year-old right-hander has pitched more than six innings in 12 of his 18 starts this season, including each of his last seven starts.
This afternoon he'll face a lineup in Miami that he's already had great success against. Back on June 13th, Nola threw seven innings, allowed two runs, and struck out six Marlins.
Today's Marlins lineup is one he should carve up as only three expected starters have above-average xwOBA's, and six of them have Strikeout Rates above 22 percent. This lineup has the ability to hit the ball hard, but the amount of contact they'll make this afternoon is questionable.
On top of that, Nola has been outstanding this season. He enters this start with an xwOBA and Hard-Hit Rate among the top-15 percent of the league. His command is also an important factor. Nola's Walk Rate is in the top-one percent of all qualified pitchers. With the way the Marlins swing and miss, walks are not a concern.
Nola should continue his hot stretch and go at least seven innings today, especially since he'll have extra rest over the All-Star break.
Pick: Nola Over 18.5 Pitching Outs (-105)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Logan Webb Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)
| Brewers vs. Giants | Giants -145 |
| First Pitch | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line: | DraftKings |
Logan Webb has quickly developed into one of the better pitchers in the National League as he enters this start with a 2.82 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Webb will attack hitters with his sinker, slider, and change-up in an effort to produce ground balls. He's done a tremendous job of that, as he holds a 57.4 Ground Ball Rate.
However, here we're looking for strikeouts, and while that's not a focal point for Webb, he's proven he can go over this total. He's had over four strikeouts in 12 of his 18 starts this year, which gives him implied odds of -200 to go over again today.
The Brewers have been strikeout-prone this year as they enter this matchup with the seventh-highest Strikeout Rate in the majors. However, they've climbed up the strikeout board over the last two weeks. They have a strikeout rate of 25.2 percent, which is good for sixth in the majors and three percent higher than the league average. All signs point to Webb racking up the strikeouts today.
Pick: Over 4.5 Strikeouts -160
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
