Yesterday, we went 1-1 as Kevin Gausman was unable to put away the Tigers like expected, but Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers bullpen held Brandon Crawford hitless in a loss. Today, we'll be focusing on two quality starters who have great matchups and should continue their impressive campaigns. So let's dive into my favorite prop bets on the board as we look to finish strong this weekend.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Ranger Suarez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)
| Diamondbacks vs. Phillies | Phillies -200 |
| First Pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| Best Line: | DraftKings |
Ranger Suarez is not your prototypical strikeout pitcher. In fact, his Strikeout and Whiff Rates are down considerably this season. However, the market has adjusted to his new average amount of strikeouts per outing, and he will go over his average in this matchup.
The crafty lefty will face an Arizona team that has struck out a ton this season, and the Snakes are notably worse against left-handed pitching. Arizona will enter this game with the third-highest Strikeout Rate in the majors against lefties.
As I mentioned earlier, Suarez's Strikeout Rate has dropped, but he's gone over this total in five of his 11 starts, and all five of those teams are much more accomplished offensively than Arizona. The teams he's gone over against are Milwaukee, San Francisco, twice against the Dodgers, and Seattle. So if we can get five innings out of Suarez, he should go over once again.
Pick: Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Jameson Taillon to Record a Win (+130)
| Cubs vs. Yankees | Yankees -250 |
| First Pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| Best Line: | DraftKings |
Jameson Taillon has been marvelous this season and is poised to bounce back after his first rough outing of the year came in his last start against the Twins. Taillon has displayed impeccable control of his arsenal as he is in the top 10 percent of all qualified pitchers in Walk and Chase Rate. That means he's consistently getting ahead of hitters and forcing them to hit his pitches, which may or may not be a strike.
Not only has Taillion been excellent, but today's matchup will also be in his favor. Thus far, Taillon has taken on the best of the American League, but in this matchup against the Cubs, he should thrive. The Cubs have the 11th-highest Strikeout Rate against righties in the majors, and they are 16th in both average and wRC++.
The last component of this play is the length we get out of Taillon. He'll need to go at least five innings to qualify for a win, and he's done that in eight of his 11 starts this season. I expect the reg-hot Yankees lineup to give him plenty of support early on as he cruises to his seventh victory of the year.
Pick: Yes +130
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
