Yesterday, we were beat by the humbling realities of baseball, as Jacob deGrom looked human and had his worst start of the season. That's in the past now, though, as I've got my eyes on two young studs that are being undervalued this afternoon. Let's find out who they are and how we're backing them.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150)
| Braves @ Phillies | |
| First Pitch | 1:05 pm ET |
| Best Line: +150 | Bet365 |
The Phillies have vaulted themselves into playoff position, and the man leading the charge has been Alec Bohm. Bohm has had a tremendous season and has been red hot of late. Over the last seven games, he's hitting .333 with a .875 OPS.
On top of his recent hot stretch, Bohm gets to face a starter who he is very familiar with. Charlie Morton has made his way around the majors during his career, but Bohm has gotten the best of him during his stint in the NL East. For his career, Bohm is hitting .400 with no extra base hits off Morton.
However, that latter fact is due to change as Bohm has an average exit velocity of 90.7 mph and an average launch angle of 17.8 degrees. Not only has he hit the ball correctly to generate extra base hits, but his xSLG is 71 points higher than his slugging percentage off Morton.
While all the signs point to Bohm putting one in the gap, he could very easily rack up two singles this afternoon.
Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Shane McClanahan Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)
| Blue Jays @ Rays | |
| First Pitch | 1:10 pm ET |
| Best Line: -145 | DraftKings |
I get that McClanahan has struggled in his first two starts in September, but this total is just far too low for a pitcher of his caliber. McClanahan has been nearly untouchable when he's on and that's led to a staggering amount of strikeouts.
He has gone over this total in 74.1 percent of his starts this season, which gives us implied odds of -285 that he will go over again. He's due for some positive regression as he has only recorded three and five strikeouts his last two starts.
In addition, It's not like the Toronto lineup is immune to striking out. Yes, as a team they are a bit below the league average in strikeout rate, but they have six hitters with a strikeout rate over 20 percent and if one of them goes down multiple times, the Rays' lethal lefty will be well on his way to cashing this over.
Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
