After a 1-1 showing on Saturday, we're back again with much of the same formula for Sunday’s Major League Baseball props picks.
First, I've pinpointed a struggling Tampa Bay hitter whose chances of breaking out are much slimmer than what the odds imply. Then, we'll head back to Arizona, but instead of targeting a hitter, we'll focus on a starting pitcher in the midst of a career year and will only improve on his impressive outing.
So, let's dive into the top player props on the busy card.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Kevin Kiermaier — Under 0.5 Hits (+170)
| Yankees @ Rays | |
| First Pitch | 1:50 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
This young Tampa Bay team hasn't seen much of Luis Severino. In fact, only four players on their roster have faced him and one is pitcher Matt Wisler. However, there is another who has seen Severino possibly more than he's liked to over the course of his career.
Kevin Kiermaier has faced Luis Severino 25 times and only managed to get a hit off him in three of those at-bats. Keirmaier does not see the ball well from Severino. He's punched out in 44.4 percent of their matchup, and has a 30.2 percent whiff rate.
Severino has been difficult to square up this season, as he's in the top 25 percent of qualified pitchers in average exit velocity and sits in the top half of the league in hard-hit rate and barrel rate. His success only amplifies Kiermaier's struggles ,as he has an average exit velocity of just 83.7 off him.
Expect Kiermaier to have a quiet afternoon
Pick: Under 0.5 Hits (+170)
Action Labs Grade:
Tyler Anderson — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
| Dodgers @ Diamondbacks | |
| First Pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Tyler Anderson has provided a tremendous boost to the best rotation in baseball in wake of Clayton Kershaw's injury. His metrics are impressive, ranking in the top 10 percent of qualified pitchers in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, walk rate, and chase rate. That's all led him to a perfect 5-0 record with a career-low 3.30 ERA.
He'll make his second start of the season against a young, green Arizona team. His first start against Diamondbacks came about two weeks ago, and he was lights out. He twirled seven innings of two-run ball, while striking out seven batters. That total is key as it is part of his recent uptick in strikeouts.
Anderson's strikeout rate is the highest of his career, and now gets to face a team that not only struggled against him but has difficulty hitting left-handed pitching in general. The Diamondbacks will enter this game with the fourth-highest strikeout rate against lefties in the league.
Look for him to duplicate the success he had his first time out.
Pick: Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Action Labs Grade:
