The Baltimore Orioles (82-61) and Tampa Bay Rays (70-72) play the series finale of their three-game series on Sunday at Camden Yards. First pitch for this AL East rivalry game is set for 12:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Roku.
The Orioles cruised to a win on Friday, before the Rays flipped the script with a 7-1 win on Saturday. Every game is important for the Orioles down the stretch as they enter Sunday a half-game back of the New York Yankees (82-60) for first place in the AL East.
Do the Orioles have the advantage on Sunday with ace Corbin Burnes on the mound? Read further for my Rays vs Orioles prediction.
Rays vs Orioles Prediction
- Rays-Orioles picks: Over 7.5 (-110) | Play to -145)
My Rays-Orioles best bet is on over 7.5, where I see value at -110. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Orioles Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -134 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +166 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +112 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -198 |
Rays vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Corbin Burnes (BAL) | Stat | RHP Zack Littell (TB) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-7 | W-L | 5-9 |
| 3.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 3.19 / 3.35 | ERA /xERA | 4.04 / 4.56 |
| 3.66 / 3.61 | FIP / xFIP | 4.24 / 4.20 |
| 1.13 | WHIP | 1.35 |
| 16.3% | K-BB% | 15.4% |
| 48.4% | GB% | 34.1% |
| 117 | Stuff+ | 83 |
| 103 | Location+ | 103 |
Sean Paul’s Rays vs Orioles Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Burnes Becoming a Liability
Corbin Burnes's second half of the year has been one to forget. From an AL CY Young front-runner to a potential liability at the top of the Orioles rotation as they vie for the division lead in the AL East. That's the current situation for Burnes, who needs a strong finish to the year to secure a hefty free-agent deal this winter.
In his past seven outings, Burnes is pitching to a brutal 5.79 ERA, while allowing 44 hits in 34 1/3 innings.
You could flip a positive spin on Burnes's struggles by looking at his FIP, which sits at 4.20, which is still not great. But when compared to his season-long 3.60 FIP, there's hope for positive regression.
Arguably, the biggest concern about Burnes's long-term prognosis is his declining strikeouts. It's been a trend for a couple of years. He punched 12.6 batters per nine in his 2021 CY Young winning campaign — striking out 8.19 per nine this year. He'll face a very strikeout-heavy lineup, but I'm beginning to believe Burnes isn't a high-strikeout pitcher nowadays.
The Orioles offense struggled in August, posting a 103 wRC+, ranking 16th in MLB. They've displayed painfully average numbers in several areas — 16th in home runs, 16th in strikeout rate, and 7th in walk rate. Baltimore's offense isn't anything special if Adley Rutschman continues struggling. The All-Star catcher is batting .188 with a 60 wRC+ over the past two months with just three homers.
Anthony Santander and Gunnar Henderson combined for 27 homers in that same span.
Henderson is finally back in his first-half form, hitting .357 with an OPS over 1.100 and a trifecta of homers over the past week. Henderson gave the Rays a taste of his hot play with his 36th homer of the year on Friday.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview: Cloudy Days for the Rays
Baltimore will face Rays starter Zach Littell, who allowed four runs in four innings against the Twins in his return to action after suffering an injury that kept him out for three weeks.
Littell is one of the Rays' latest bargain bin reclamation projects. He's performed well — relative to the expectations when Tampa Bay claimed him from waivers a season ago. He enters Sunday's game with a 4.04 ERA and 4.24 FIP. Littell's biggest problem though, is the long ball, posting a high 1.41 HR/9 and a mediocre 7.95 K/9. He's a fly-ball pitcher and the Orioles high-octane offense that can easily connect on the long ball could find success against him.
The Rays offense finds themselves in a spot no MLB team wants to be in — joining only the White Sox as MLB teams with a wRC+ below 80 from August to now. That is a fairly brutal spot for Tampa Bay, but perhaps the seven-run surge on Saturday changes things.
On Saturday, Yandy Diaz went off. In his past fifteen games, he boasts an OPS approaching 1.000 with four home runs (three this week). He's been extremely hot and just needs help from the ancillary pieces to make the Rays offense serviceable. Coincidentally, since Diaz ended up being the lone piece of the Paredes/Arozarena/Diaz trio remaining in Florida, he's been the best of the three.
I have concerns about the Rays strikeout woes, punching out over 27% of the time since August. That's life when Jose Siri and Christopher Morel play everyday starting roles, but when the two hit the occasional big homer, it all feels worth it.
Rays vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm a bit puzzled by the total sitting at just 7.5 runs. Neither Littell or Burnes are trustworthy arms right now. Burnes has been shelled plenty of times recently, and Baltimore poses a pretty tough attack against Littell with its home run hitting ability and his reliance on fly ball outs. I could see this one being more of a high-scoring showdown than the books indicate. Roll with the over.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-110) | Play to -145) via FanDuel
Moneyline
I think the Rays are very live underdogs here at +170. The Orioles feel a bit overrated by the oddsmakers with Burnes on the hill, considering he's pitched poorly of late. I think the line should sit closer to Rays +130/+140, so I'll gladly grab +170.
Run Line (Spread)
I'd rather just roll with the Rays ML at plus money instead of messing with the run line. I definitely can't jump on Baltimore's run line, and while I see the Rays covering 1.5, I see them winning outright. Just go with the ML.
Over/Under
I like the Over here.
Rays-Orioles Betting Trends
- 93% of the bets and 97% of the money are on the Orioles on the moneyline.
- 54% of the bets and 66% of the money are on the over.
- 90% of the bets and 96% of the money are on the Orioles to cover the run line.
Rays Betting Trends
- The Rays won four of their past ten games.
- The Rays are 32-34 on the road this year.
- The Rays are 5-3-2 in favor of the over in their past ten games.
- The Rays are 7-3 on the run line in their past ten games.
- The Rays are 42-30 as underdogs on the run line this year.
Orioles Betting Trends
- The Orioles are 6-4 in their past ten games.
- The Orioles are 65-43 as ML favorites this year.
- The Orioles are 6-4 against the spread in their past ten games.
- The Orioles are 5-4-1 in favor of the over in their past ten games.
