The Detroit Tigers enter the final week of the MLB regular season in control of their own fate. They enter Tuesday in possession of one of the three AL wild-card spots, but must fend off the Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners to crash the MLB playoffs.
Detroit is going all out to make the MLB postseason. Case in point: It recalled top prospect Jackson Jobe to work out of the bullpen. The third overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, Jobe is ranked as the No. 6 prospect by MLB Pipeline, No. 15 by FanGraphs and No. 3 by Baseball Prospectus.
Will the Tampa Bay Rays spoil the Tigers' postseason dreams or can Tarik Skubal and the Tigers keep roaring on Tuesday? Find out below, as I preview the series opener of this pivotal three-game series at Comerica Park and provide my Rays vs Tigers prediction for September 24.
Rays-Tigers Predictions
- Rays-Tigers picks: Under 7 (-115 | Play to -125)
My Rays vs Tigers best bet is on Under 7, where I see value at -115. The best line is available at BetMGM at the time of writing — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Tigers Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+154 | 7 -102o / -118u | +1.5 -148 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-185 | 7 -102o / -118u | -1.5 +124 |
Rays vs Tigers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Ryan Pepiot (TB) | Stat | LHP Tarik Skubal (DET) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-6 | W-L | 17-4 |
| 1.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 5.6 |
| 3.64 / 3.70 | ERA /xERA | 2.48 / 2.77 |
| 4.04 / 4.03 | FIP / xFIP | 2.53 / 2.85 |
| 1.13 | WHIP | 0.94 |
| 17.8% | K-BB% | 25.6% |
| 36.3% | GB% | 45.5% |
| 116 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 99 | Location+ | 103 |
Kenny Ducey’s Rays vs Tigers Preview
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview: Don't Sleep on Ryan Pepiot
Ryan Pepiot continues to be one of the most slept on pitchers in the game. Despite being held out a month due to injury, he's done nothing but perform since the start of July with a 2.55 ERA across his last 10 starts.
In September, Pepiot's outings have been abbreviated but he's still managed a 3.86 ERA in 16 1/3 innings. He's pitched to a spicy .213 Expected Batting Average (xBA) and decent enough .373 Expected Slugging (xSLG), striking out 12 in his most recent outing against the Red Sox to bring his punchout rate to 28.4% on the month.
Walks continue to be a concern for Pepiot, who's in the bottom half of the league in walk rate and has seen that number balloon to 10.8% across his last four outings, but he remains an excellent strikeout pitcher who's proven he can pitch to contact in the air. Coming over from the Dodgers in the Tyler Glasnow trade, we shouldn't be surprised he looks this good.
Offensively, the Rays have found some life in the past couple of weeks but remain liable to strikeout arms with the second-worst strikeout-to-walk ratio in the last 14 days. Their .150 Isolated Power (ISO) is nothing to be excited about, and they're hitting .240 — which is almost exactly the league average.
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Tarik Skubal Leads the Charge
This magical run that the Tigers have been on has been almost exclusively due to their pitching. It's quite a marvel, considering this team had to move Kenta Maeda to move to the bullpen earlier in the year, and with an injury to Reese Olson this past summer, were trotting out two inexperienced arms and the volatile Casey Mize.
The rotation's been solid, checking in with a 3.32 ERA in the month of September, but the story continues to be the bullpen, which is ranked sixth in the big leagues for the season and owns the second-best ERA this month at 2.37.
While a random collection of essentially Quad-A pitchers have helped vault this team into the race, there's palpable buzz on Tuesday with Tarik Skubal taking the ball. The presumptive American League Cy Young Award winner has done nothing but mow down opponents all year long, piling up the strikeouts and displaying expert command with just one walk allowed in his last five starts.
Skubal's also allowed just two home runs in his last seven starts, something we'd expect out of a man with a .339 xSLG, but it's worth noting that the xSLG has risen to .369 in September to go along with an 11.1% barrel rate.
Rays vs Tigers Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Rays simply do not scare me here. They rank 26th in ISO with only a marginal increase over the last two weeks as they've picked things up, sporting disastrous marks in the strikeout and walk departments.
Sure, Skubal's looked slightly more vulnerable to power in his last few outings by the metrics, but this isn't a team that can capitalize enough on those hiccups — and one which likely won't be getting many balls back into play.
Detroit's offense hasn't been anything special, either, and while it's done an excellent job of walking at a near-10% clip over the last two weeks to present some potential problems for Pepiot, the power numbers have sunk. In a tough park for home runs, the Rays' righty should find a way to continue inducing flyouts.
I'd love to take the Tigers here at a better number, but unfortunately, we can't do anything about the line. The total's low, but it's fitting for this one with two strong pitching outlooks — made sweeter by the fact that both bullpens rank inside the top six in ERA this month.
Pick: Under 7 (-115)
Moneyline
We've seen some sharp action on Tigers moneyline, which opened at -164 and quickly flew out past -180. They've now cashed in six of the last seven.
Pick: Pass
Run Line (Spread)
The Tigers may be 6-1 to the run line over their last seven — something that comes as no surprise given they've won six of seven, but as favorites, they're still 3-1 in their last four games. They sit 14-28 against the spread as home favorites this year, and Tampa Bay ranks 12th in the league with a 33-20 record to the run line as road underdogs.
Pick: Pass
Over/Under
The under has cashed in seven of the Tigers' last 10 games, but as home favorites this year, it's hit just 47.5% of the time. We saw this line open up at 6.5 runs before ticking up to seven runs, but we're seeing both sharp action and big money hitting the under.
Pick: Under 7
Rays vs Tigers Betting Trends
- 78% of the bets and 93% of the money are on the Tigers to hit the moneyline.
- 89% of the bets and 47% of the money are on the Tigers to cover the run line.
- 93% of the bets and 97% of the money are on the over.
Rays Betting Trends
- Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Rays are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Rays are 40-35 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Rays' last 5 games
Tigers Betting Trends
- Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Tigers' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 35 of Tigers' 75 last games at home
Rays vs Tigers Weather
Get the latest coverage on our MLB Weather page. It's worth noting this game was originally scheduled for Tuesday night, but was moved up to 1:10 p.m. ET to avoid the possibility of inclement weather.
