The Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers will face off tonight in Comerica Park in the second game of a three game set. The Tigers took the first game of this series by a score of 2-1 on Tuesday afternoon.
Detroit has exploded onto the scene this season. For much of the year they were in fourth place in the AL Central and appeared to have no shot at making the playoffs. They then became the hottest team in baseball over the last couple of months and now find themselves holding onto the second AL wild card spot.
Tampa Bay is still holding onto some hope but essentially has zero chance of making the postseason right now. They are five games out of a wild card spot with five games remaining, so a single loss or a Tigers/Royals win would eliminate them from contention officially.
Let’s take a look at my Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers prediction and best bet for Wednesday September 25th.
Rays vs Tigers Prediction
- Rays vs Tigers pick: Rays F5 Moneyline (-105 | Play to -115)
My Rays vs Tigers best bet is on Tampa Bay Rays F5 moneyline, where I see value at -105. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Tigers Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +140 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -165 |
Rays vs Tigers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Zack Littell (TB) | Stat | RHP Keider Montero (DET) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-9 | W-L | 6-6 |
| 2.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 3.56 / 4.17 | ERA /xERA | 4.86 / 5.18 |
| 3.91 / 4.08 | FIP / xFIP | 5.12 / 4.23 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 16.2% | K-BB% | 11.7% |
| 34.2% | GB% | 40.1% |
| 82 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 104 | Location+ | 100 |
Cody Goggin’s Rays vs Tigers Preview
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview: Will Littell Be Able To Hold His Own vs. Tigers?
Zack Littell will get the nod for the Rays tonight. The 28-year old fully transitioned to a starting role this season and has been a reliable starter, posting a 3.56 ERA, 4.17 xERA, and 4.08 xFIP over 151⅔ innings.
Littell has a Stuff+ of just 82 as he isn’t a big strikeout pitcher. His strikeout rate ranks in just the 35th percentile among qualified pitchers and his whiff rate ranks in the 29th percentile. Littell has instead gotten by on his fantastic control, where he has a Location+ of 104 and a walk rate in the 93rd percentile.
Littell has not done great against hard contact this season. His hard hit rate allowed ranks in the 54th percentile while his barrel rate allowed is in the 27th percentile and his average exit velocity allowed is in the 48th percentile. Littell is also not a ground ball pitcher, as his ground ball rate is just in the 8th percentile.
This season Tampa Bay’s offense has struggled as they have a wRC+ of just 96, ranking 21st in the league. They are 27th in wOBA, 29th in SLG, 24th in OBP, and 26th in ISO. The Rays rank 11th in walk rate and strike out the fifth-most in baseball.
The Rays aren’t known for their ability to make hard contact this year as they rank 25th in hard hit rate, 17th in barrel rate, and 28th in exit velocity.
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Offense Needs TO Continue Progressing
Starting for the Tigers tonight will be 24-year old Keider Montero. Montero made his debut this season and wasn’t a very highly-regarded prospect, ranking 22nd in the Tigers’ organization according to Fangraphs. Montero has started 15 games this season at the Major League level and thrown 92⅔ innings, striking out 73. He has an ERA of 4.86 and an xERA of 5.18 to this point.
Montero isn’t a particularly good pitcher at this point in his career. He has a Stuff+ of 96, an 18th percentile whiff rate, and a 19th percentile strikeout rate. His control is about average as he has a Location+ of 100 and a walk rate that ranks in the 60th percentile.
Montero has fairly average contact numbers as well, ranking in the 52nd percentile in hard hit rate allowed, 46th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and 35th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. His ground ball rate of 40.9% ranks in the 43rd percentile as well.
Detroit’s offense ranks 22nd in wRC+ this season. They are 25th in wOBA, 22nd in SLG, 28th in OBP, and 20th in ISO. They strike out at the eighth-highest rate and walk at the tenth-lowest rate. Over the last 30 days, Detroit’s offense has improved to being a unit that’s closer to league average, ranking 15th in wRC+ with a 97.
The Tigers are 22nd in hard hit rate, 18th in barrel rate, and 21st in exit velocity this season. They are just 22nd in ground ball rate as they get the ball elevated more often with the 8th-highest launch angle.
Rays vs Tigers Prediction, Betting Analysis
While the Tigers have been much hotter than the Rays as of late, I think that there is value on Tampa over the first five innings. The Rays’ offense has been bad, particularly over the second half of the season, but Detroit’s isn’t great either.
Littell is a better pitcher than Montero is right now and with neither offense being above average, I’ll stick with who I believe to be the better pitcher in this matchup.
I project the Rays to be favored by about 0.3 runs over the first five innings, so at +135, I would take Tampa Bay -105 on the first five inning moneyline as I think they can have a lead through the first half of this ballgame.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays F5 ML -105 at DraftKings, bet to -115
Moneyline
Detroit is 40-36 straight up at home this season compared to 43-38 on the road. Tampa Bay is just 36-40 on the road this season as they have been better when playing at their home park.
These teams have each had good bullpens this season. Detroit has been better overall this year, but Tampa Bay has the 2nd best bullpen ERA in the league in the second half of this season.
At +102, I don’t mind backing the Rays here on the full game moneyline either as they have the better starter and better bullpen in this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
Both of these teams have been good bets against the spread this season. The Tigers are 85-72 ATS overall but 37-39 at home. Tampa Bay is 86-71 ATS overall and 41-35 ATS on the road this season.
I don’t see enough of a difference between these two teams right now to lay -1.5 on the Tigers, even at +170. I also am not confident enough in this Tampa Bay offense to bet them at +1.5 -205. I’ll stay away from the spread on this game.
Over/Under
Comerica Park games have gone 40-35-1 to the under this season. The Rays have been an under team overall at 85-67-5 to the under, including 45-31 to the under on the road.
With two below average offenses and good bullpens, I would lean towards the under in this game but I don’t think I would make a play either way as this line seems about right at 8 runs.
Rays vs Tigers Betting Trends
Rays Betting Trends
- Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Rays are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Rays are 41-35 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Rays' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Rays' 81 last games at home.
Tigers Betting Trends
- Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Tigers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Tigers are 48-33 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Tigers' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 35 of Tigers' 76 last games at home.
