Rays vs Dodgers Prediction, Picks, Odds for Saturday, August 24

The Los Angeles Dodgers will look to continue their dominant play at Dodger Stadium after an exciting win in the series opener against the Tampa Bay Rays, which featured a walk-off grand slam from Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani's home-run made him the first Dodger to join the 4o-40 club as well as the fastest player in MLB history to hit the mark, and pushed the Dodgers record at home to 42-21 this season.

Saturday's matchup features an interesting starting pitching matchup as Taj Bradley will look to get right in a duel versus Clayton Kershaw, who has allowed just two earned runs over his last three starts. Opening pitch is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET. Read below for my Rays vs. Dodgers predictions for Saturday.

• Rays vs Dodgers pick: Over 7.5 runs scored
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My Rays-Dodgers pick is on the over of 7.5 runs scored, where I see value at a line of -110. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

Saturday, Aug 24

9:10pm ET

BSSUN

Rays Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+1.5 -115	7.5 -110o / -110u	+185

Dodgers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-1.5 -105	7.5 -110o / -110u	-225

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

• Rays vs Dodgers run line: -1.5 (Rays -115, Dodgers -105)
• Rays vs Dodgers total: Over/under 7.5 runs scored
• Rays vs Dodgers moneylines: Dodgers -225 | Rays +185

Bradley was able to bounce-back to some extent with a quality start on Monday in Oakland after a trio of disastrous outings, but still features a 4.91 ERA since the All-Star break. That might sound a little more concerning given that Bradley fell apart over his final 13 starts last season with an ERA of 7.11, though his underlying results tell us that kind of drop-off should not be expected.

Bradley's recent velocities do remain on par with his numbers throughout the rest of this season. Over the last 33 innings his xFIP has climbed to 4.20 though, and his strikeout percentage is down considerably from his season average at 21%. He also holds a WHIP of 1.24 in those six starts.

Bradley has allowed an average exit velocity of 91.1 MPH this season, which is the fifth-highest mark among qualified starters. Since the 2022 season he has allowed a 45% hard-hit rate. His strikeout rate has been drastically worse on the road this season (18.3%), as well as his xFIP (4.57). He has also allowed a slug-rate of .445 on the road.

The Rays have been significantly more effective against left-handed pitching this season, and that trend has continued recently. They rank in the leagues top-third against LHP overall this season with a wRC+ of 110, and rank seventh with a wRC+ of 116 versus lefties since July 1st.

While the starting rotation is still missing a number of key arms, the Dodgers are finally enjoying the luxury of fielding a fully healthy lineup which has helped power their five game winning streak. Over the last two weeks the Dodgers hold a wRC+ of 118, and have reduced their strikeout rate to 19.9% with a hard-hit rate of 40.6%.

Since the All-Star break the Dodgers have hit to a wRC+ of 114 against right-handed pitching with an OPS of .769.

In each of the last two seasons Kershaw has outperformed his xERA by some margin, and since 2015 has only pitched to an ERA higher than his xERA once. The numbers seem to have a hard time accurately assessing the legendary lefty, and in 2024 that has remained true as he has outperformed his xERA by over a full run.

This sets up as a tough spot for Bradley to snap out of a far lesser run of play as he takes on one of the hottest offenses in the league. The Dodgers haven't often had all of their top bats in the lineup this season but that has been the case of late, and it's led to strong results.

Kershaw has been fantastic over his last handful of outings and has always outperformed his expected ERA, but it still seems unlikely that he will be able to hold up a sub 3.00 ERA given his extreme lack of velocity.

The Rays have been one of the best teams in the league against left-handed pitching of late and over this entire season, and this total seems to be a little too low on the idea that they could do some damage off of Kershaw.

At -110 odds, I see value backing this game to go over it's low total of 7.5 on a day which should feature slightly favorable weather conditions.

Rays vs Dodgers pick: Over 7.5

• 98% of the bets and 83% of the money are on the Dodgers to cover the run line.
• 94% of the bets and 92% of the money are on the Dodgers on the moneyline.
• 97% of the bets and 96% of the money are on the over.

RAYS BETTING TRENDS:

• Rays are 2-3 in their last 5 games
• Rays are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
• Rays are 32-28 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Rays' last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 31 of Rays' 68 last games at home

DODGERS BETTING TRENDS:

• Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games
• Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
• Dodgers are 30-34 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Dodgers' last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Dodgers' 63 last games at home

Pick: Over 7.5 (-110)

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