Blue Jays vs. Orioles Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-106 | 9 -104 / -118 | +1.5 +146 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 9 -104 / -118 | -1.5 -178 |
The rubber match of an important three-game set between the Jays and Orioles will take place Thursday at Camden Yards. Jose Berrios (3.39 ERA, 146 IP) will look to continue his bounce-back season in a matchup versus Kyle Gibson (4.97 ERA, 150 and 2/3 IP).
Toronto Blue Jays
Looking at the defensive results, team ERA, and overall batting averages, it is clear that the main thing separating these two teams is the ability to hit with runners in scoring position. Baltimore owns a third-best .280 batting average with RISP, while the Jays are way down at 21st with an average of .248.
Having productive outs with men on has been another concern for Toronto, as has their 0.81 GIDP per game average.
They have hit to an 11th-best wRC+ of 104 versus righties this season. They were the third-best team in the league last season prior to shipping out Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in an attempt to create a more balanced lineup. A right-handed pitcher in Kyle Gibson featuring less movement should still on paper be a good matchup for the Jays to bounce back offensively.
Jose Berrios owns a 3.08 ERA in 38 innings of work since the All-Star break, yet a WHIP up at 1.38 in that time. He continues to run with some good luck as his 3.39 ERA is more than a full run below his 4.51 xERA. His xFIP sits at 4.15 on the season but has trended upward over the last 10 outings with no single start holding a mark below 4.00.
Berrios' arsenal is rating at league average with a Stuff+ rating of 99, and his Location+ comes in at 103.
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore will be in its lesser splits Thursday in a matchup versus a righty in Berrios. The Orioles have been considerably less potent versus right-handed pitching with a wRC+ of 100 and a hard-hit rate of 32.8%.
Kyle Gibson has struggled to a 5.98 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 40 and 2/3 innings of work since the All-Star break. He holds an xERA of 4.53 on the season and an xFIP of 4.11. He owns a Stuff+ of 92, and a Location+ of 99 this season.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Blue Jays are deserving of being a slight favorite in this matchup, all things considered. Their offense matches up quite well versus Gibson, and they could get to him early on in this matchup. They could easily be into some softer middle relievers from the Orioles within five innings.
Jose Berrios is clearly due for regression, but he still deserves to be viewed as a slightly better starter than Gibson. The Blue Jays' offense owns better splits versus righties than Baltimore, which has been hidden by their horrific results with RISP. Maybe that concern never fully resolves itself, but it is still the only reason this matchup does not favor Toronto.
Defensively, Toronto has been tremendous, and its bullpen has remained one of its greatest strengths recently to boot.
If we aren't rating Gibson as a better starter than Berrios, or the Orioles offense as better versus righties, then the Jays should be favored in this matchup. Anything better than -115 is a play for me with Toronto to win the full game.
