Twins vs. Marlins Odds
| Minnesota Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+126 | 7 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -176 |
| Miami Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -148 | 7 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +146 |
The Minnesota Twins are already off to a fast start in this young 2023 season. After sweeping the Kansas City Royals for three games in their opening series, the Twins continued their road trip in Miami.
The Twins were no worse for the travel as they pounded the Marlins 11-1 on Monday, giving them a perfect 4-0 record. However, as former Marlins manager Jim Leyland likes to say, momentum is only as good as the next day's starting pitcher.
In this one, 34-year-old Kenta Maeda will be making his first start since August 2021 after recovering from Tommy John surgery. Will he be able to keep the Twins on the winning track in his first start in almost two years?
The Parlay (+850 at DraftKings):
- Sandy Alcantara Over 6 Strikeouts
- Jazz Chisholm 2+ Total Bases
- Marlins Moneyline
Same-Game Parlay – Twins vs. Marlins
Sandy Alcantara Over 6 Strikeouts
Alcantara went only 5.2 innings with two strikeouts in his first start of the year against the Mets. New York isn't a very strikeout-heavy team, and Alcantara kind of had an uneven spring training, where he left the team to pitch in the World Baseball Classic and didn't look as sharp as he usually does.
I'm betting that Alcantara can bounce back nicely here. The Twins have a good offense, but there's also strikeout upside up and down the lineup. Seven hitters in their projected lineup had at least a 20% K% against right-handed pitching last year, and as a collective, their projected lineup had a 25% K% against right-handed pitching last year. The Twins also have five right-handed hitters in their projected lineup, and Alcantara had a 26% K% against right-handed hitters last year.
Jazz Chisholm 2+ Total Bases
Chisholm has only three hits in the young season, but two of them have gone for extra bases. Chisholm slugged .535 against all pitchers last season and had a .303 ISO against right-handed pitching.
As I mentioned in the intro, Maeda is making his first start in about a year and a half. Chisholm should have a good chance to jump on Maeda early here before he finds his footing and settles back into the swing of things.
Marlins Moneyline
I like the Marlins in this one. The Twins are on a four-game winning streak to start the season, but in baseball, your luck can change very quickly.
Miami will have its ace on the mound at home here, going up against a pitcher in his first start after a long layoff due to major surgery. Maeda had a 4.91 ERA in 14 spring training innings and wasn't even very effective the last time we saw him pitch in 2021, when he had a 4.66 ERA.
It's unclear how many innings Maeda will even be able to complete in this one, and Alcantara had one of the highest inning totals in all of baseball last year with 228.2 innings. Miami has a clear starting pitching advantage, and despite the 11-1 score on Monday, these lineups are closer than you might think, especially with Max Kepler's availability up in the air after leaving Monday's game with an injury.
