The TexasRangers visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox on Monday night. First pitch for Rangers-Red Sox is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Rangers (55-63) are currently clinging to their last hopes of making the MLB postseason. The defending World Series champions are 7 1/2 games out of the AL West lead and 10 games out of an AL wild-card spot. They've been sliding down the stretch, going 3-7 in their last 10 games.
Boston (61-55), meanwhile, has surged over the last month and gotten itself back into the hunt. It's currently 7 1/2 games out of the AL East lead, but just three games back from the final wild-card spot. The Red Sox, however, will be without key outfielder Jarren Duran for two games starting on Monday after he was suspended for responding to a fan with a homophobic slur.
Rangers vs Red Sox odds for Monday have the Red Sox as -125 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (-135o / +115u). Let’s dive into my preview, the latest MLB odds and my Rangers vs Red Sox prediction — a Brayan Bello prop pick — for Monday night.
Rangers vs Red Sox Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+105 | 8.5 -135o / +115u | +1.5 -190 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-125 | 8.5 -135o / +115u | -1.5 +160 |
Rangers vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Tyler Mahle (TEX) | Stat | RHP Brayan Bello (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 10-5 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 1.80 / 3.09 | ERA /xERA | 5.16 / 4.76 |
| 2.98 / 5.70 | FIP / xFIP | 4.61 / 3.74 |
| 1.20 | WHIP | 1.45 |
| 4.8% | K-BB% | 13.8% |
| 38.9% | GB% | 50.6% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 106 | Location+ | 100 |
Rangers at Red Sox Weather Report Monday
Cody Goggin’s Rangers vs Red Sox Prediction Preview
Rangers Betting Preview: Mahle Brings Uncertainty
Tyler Mahle will get the start for Texas tonight. Mahle underwent Tommy John surgery last May before signing a two-year deal with the Rangers this offseason.
The 29-year-old old made his 2024 debut last week, allowing just one run over five innings against Houston.
Prior to his surgery, Mahle had become a reliable starter, consistently posting an xERA in the threes in each of the last four seasons. There’s not a whole lot to take away from this first start of his outside of his average fastball velocity, which is about where it was last year before his injury but down from 2022 and even further from 2021.
I wouldn’t expect Mahle to make it very far into this game, as he hasn’t gone more than five innings this season, including his rehab starts. I don’t know what to expect from him at this point and will be staying away from the uncertainty in this situation.
Texas’s offense has been a disappointment this year. It ranks 24th in wRC+, 24th in wOBA, 21st in SLG, 22nd in ISO and 20th in OBP.
One area where the Rangers have been solid is their plate discipline, as they rank 11th in walk rate and have the ninth-lowest strikeout rate.
This offense ranks 16th in hard-hit rate, 21st in barrel rate and 18th in exit velocity. However, they hit ground balls 42.5% of the time, which is ninth-highest mark in MLB.
Red Sox Betting Preview: Bello Due for Positive Regression?
Brayan Bello will take the mound for the Red Sox on Monday. The 25-year-old right-hander is in his second full season in the Major Leagues and has struggled this season with a 5.16 ERA. The peripheral numbers for Bello are a bit better than this, as he has a 4.76 xERA, 4.61 FIP and 3.99 SIERA.
Bello has a whiff rate in the 65th percentile, but that has resulted in a strikeout rate in just the 48th percentile this season. His 8.3% walk rate is just slightly below average, and he has allowed plenty of hard contact this season.
Bello ranks in the 31st percentile in barrel rate, 16th percentile in hard-hit rate and 47th percentile in average exit velocity. What has helped him a bit is that he has a 50.7% ground-ball rate, which ranks in the 86th percentile.
Offensively, Boston ranks ninth in wRC+ and fifth in wOBA this season. But over the last 30 days, its red-hot offense has ranked third in both categories. On the season, the Sox also sit third in SLG, fifth in OBP and fourth in ISO.
The Red Sox walk at a league-average rate but strike out 25% of the time, which is the fourth-highest mark in baseball. They rank fifth in hard-hit rate, seventh in barrel rate and ninth in average exit velocity this season, which has led to their strong power numbers.
Rangers vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Rangers offense has been poor this season, and despite Bello’s struggles, I think this could be a decent matchup for him. Bello is an extreme ground-ball pitcher, and Texas hits the ball on the ground at an above-average rate, leaning into Bello's strengths.
I also want to stay away from the other side of this matchup. Mahle is still working his way back from Tommy John, and the Boston offense has been one of the best in the league over the last month.
Bello’s over/under on total outs recorded is 16.5, which would require him to go at least 5 2/3 innings on the mound. The Rangers rank 23rd in MLB with 3.84 pitches per plate appearance this season, as they don’t typically go deep into counts.
Looking at his game logs, Bello has shown an ability to be stretched into the sixth or seventh inning, which I think he should be able to do against a downtrodden Rangers offense tonight.
Pick: Brayan Bello Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-120)
Moneyline
If I had to pick a side in this game, it would be Boston. Its offense is the best unit in this game, and even with the questions around where Mahle is, this looks to be a tough matchup for him.
The Red Sox are 33-24 at home as moneyline favorites this season, and at just -135, I like them to get it done again.
Bello has had his struggles, but his peripheral numbers make me believe that he should be better down the stretch.
As slight favorites, give me the Red Sox to pick up the win on Monday night.
Run Line (Spread)
Neither bullpen has been good this season, but Boston’s has been better than Texas’, posting a 4.32 ERA to the Rangers’ 4.53.
Boston has been much better ATS on the road this season. It's 32-26 ATS on the road but just 22-36 ATS at home. The Rangers are 25-35 ATS on the road, so someone will have to come out victorious in this department and buck their season trend.
I’m not personally going to take the run line in this game, but if I did, it would once again be backing Boston because its offense gives it a huge advantage. At +145 on the run line, the Sox could be a value play if they can rough up Mahle early.
Over/Under
Fenway Park overs are 27-28-3 this season. The over has gone 32-25-3 in Rangers road games this season, as they have scored more on the road than at their home park.
With both of these bullpens reeling, I would have a lean toward the over in this matchup.
Mahle could get blown up by this Boston offense, and even though I personally think Bello could be solid tonight, his 5+ ERA on the season shows that he isn’t bulletproof.
