The Texas Rangers just visited the White House to celebrate their 2023 World Series Championship, so they should hope for a spark to remember how strong they were last season. Nathan Eovaldi has continued his successes from the prior season. The 34-year-old veteran has been a stable force in an injury-riddled starting rotation that has sorely been depleted of consistent, reliable arms.
The New York Yankees will be taking on the Rangers this week in the Big Apple. Carlos Rodón toes the rubber for the Bronx Bombers. Rodón has been a bit underwhelming since arriving in New York — however, he is the victor of his past three starts.
Texas hasn't hit well, but with a tough matchup possibly coming Rodón's way, that could change. You can find my preview for Game 1 of this doubleheader at Yankee Stadium — and my Rangers vs Yankees predictions and picks — below.
Rangers vs Yankees Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+130 | 9 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -154 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-154 | 9 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +128 |
Projected Starting Pitchers for Rangers at Yankees Game 1
| RHP Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) | Stat | LHP Carlos Rodon (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-5 | W-L | 12-7 |
| 1.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 3.62/4.06 | ERA /xERA | 4.37/4.23 |
| 3.98/3.31 | FIP / xFIP | 4.60/4.22 |
| 1.06 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 18.3% | K-BB% | 18.7% |
| 50.9% | GB% | 32.5% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 123 |
| 104 | Location+ | 98 |
D.J. James’s Rangers-Yankees Game 1 Preview
Texas Rangers Betting Preview: Hope for Defending Champs?
Eovaldi is the better pitcher in this matchup, holding a 3.62 ERA and 4.06 xERA. Much of this expected number is due to hard contact, where he ranks in the 13th percentile and yields an Average Exit Velocity of just under 90 MPH. However, Eovaldi will keep that ball on the ground like his life (or pitching outing) depends on it. He ranks in the 86th percentile in ground-ball rate, with an elite chase rate and owns a 24% strikeout rate against a 5.7% walk rate.
There is no beating around the bush — the Rangers have scuffled at the dish as of late. However, with Rodón's volatility, there is hope for this offense. Texas has a 104 wRC+ off of lefties in the past month with an 11.6% walk rate and 23.8% strikeout rate, along with six key bats above a .310 xwOBA. Corey Seager does a lot of the legwork in this lineup, though, so others who crushed the ball last season, will have to step up. That being said, with these parameters in place, the Rangers rank 11th in ground-ball rate. There are a number of hitters who can get the ball in the air, an area where Rodón specializes in — holding the highest Fly Ball% among all pitchers.
In relief, the Rangers have a 4.66 xFIP since July 10. They have a collective 22.4% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate, which needs to drop immediately. Adding Andrew Chafin was a good move for their bullpen. They have five arms under a 4.00 xFIP, so there are go-to options when Eovaldi exits.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Shaky Staff Leaves Yankees in Limbo
Rodón has a 4.37 ERA against a 4.23 xERA. His ground-ball rate ranks in the 6th percentile, so the home run hitters in the Ranger lineup could be in for a big day at the dish. His Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate are both below average, so if he can't keep the ball on the ground, these become much more of an issue. He is striking out 25.8% of batters with a 7.2% walk rate, both being a slight bump from last season for the lefty.
The Yanks are crushing righties in the last month with a 146 wRC+, 10.3% walk rate, and 18.5% strikeout rate. They have eight batters above a .310 xwOBA with one other under 10 plate appearances. That said, they are tasked with the tougher starter.
In the bullpen, the Yanks have a 3.94 xFIP with a strikeout rate above 24% and walk rate above 8%. However, they only have four arms under a 4.00 xFIP, so if Rodón starts to struggle, the middle innings could be tough to fill.
Rangers vs Yankees Predictions, Betting Analysis: Target Texas Moneyline
Look for the Rangers to have an offensive jolt at the top of the order. Eovaldi is simply much better than Rodón this year and can neutralize Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and other Yankee power-hitters by inducing grounders.
The Rangers might have a slight edge in relief with Eovaldi throwing deeper and having another reliable arm over the Yanks. Take the Rangers on the road to win from +170 to +125.
Pick: Texas Rangers Moneyline +170 to +140
Moneyline
Rangers +170, play to +140
Run Line (Spread)
PASS.
Over/Under
Under 9.5
