After a 2-0 day on Tuesday, I'm back with my two favorite MLB player props for Wednesday's slate.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Ian Anderson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
| Athletics vs. Braves | Braves -240 |
| First Pitch | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Ian Anderson is rolling right now — at least from a strikeout perspective.
His year-long strikeout numbers are down, and he's only striking out 7.55 batters per nine innings this season. However, he's recorded a whopping 20 strikeouts in his last three starts, although he's done so while allowing 13 earned runs.
Anderson will take on Oakland today. The Athletics have posted the second-worst wRC+ over the last 30 days (77) and the eighth-lowest Walk Rate (7.4%). Their Strikeout Rates have been average, but Oakland generally strikes out at a top-10 rate (24.4% in 2021, 24.2% in season-long 2022).
Anderson is going to attack with a four-seam fastball, but he will throw either a changeup or curveball about 50% of the time. Luckily for him, the A's are last in Weighted Fastball Runs created, third-to-last in Weighted Curveball Runs created, and fifth-to-last in Weighted Changeup Runs created.
Our Action Labs Player props tool projects Anderson for 5.8 Ks Wednesday night, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him for 5.6 Ks. That's plenty of value on this relatively low line.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-120)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Alex Wood Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-141)
| Rockies vs. Giants | Giants -220 |
| First Pitch | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
This is primarily a play on umpire Alan Porter, who has a .88 K Boost, per Swish Analytics, giving us a decent edge on the under today.
However, Alex Wood has only hit this number in three of his 10 starts this season. He's pitched against the Rockies twice this season — once in San Francisco and once in Denver — and failed to reach six strikeouts both times. In his first start, he managed 104 pitches with just four strikeouts.
The Rockies' offense hasn't been setting the world on fire, but they've been steady. They pair a 103 wRC+ with a 21.4% Strikeout Rate against southpaws, both numbers that are around league-average.
Wood has actually been above league average in both CSW% and strikeouts per nine innings, but the strikeouts haven't come in waves. He managed just five strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings against the trigger-happy Marlins, and yet we expect him to clear this line today?
There are too many edges pointing towards the under here. Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Wood for just 5.2 Ks today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections forecast him for 5.3.
Given the umpire situation, those numbers should be lower.
Pick: Under 5.5 Ks (-141)
Action Labs Grade: 6/10
