MLB Playoff baseball has arrived! And with that, I have a trio of MLB player props worth looking into for Game 1 of the Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Wild Card series.
Find my prop picks for Alex Bregman and Framber Valdez below.
Tigers vs Astros Player Props — ALWC Game 1
- Alex Bregman to Hit a Home Run (+475 at bet365)
- Framber Valdez Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-110 at bet365)
- Framber Valdez to Record a Win (+215 at bet365)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Will Bregman Homer?
Remember when Alex Bregman looked like a total liability in the lineup for the season’s first two months? Yeah, that’s long in the rearview mirror at this point.
If you track the numbers back from the start of the year to May 1st, Bregman posted a 65 wRC+ with one homer. Since May 2nd, Bregman was the Astros second-best hitter with a 131 wRC+. He also hit 25 homers in that stretch. The impending free agent third baseman looked the part of someone who should receive a massive deal this winter.
So, what's the Bregman play? I’m targeting a long-shot prop for Bregman and will bet him to homer off the Triple Crown-winning Tarik Skubal.
Bregman knows how to use the hitter-friendly environment of Minute Maid Park to his advantage as 16 of his 26 homers came at home this season.
While Skubal sports a pretty strong 0.70 HR/9, this matchup feels tough given the stakes and hitter-friendly environment in Houston. This is easily the most impactful start in Skubal's young career. Prior to this year, he hadn't reached All-Star levels and certainly didn't get close to pitching in the postseason.
Back Valdez to Pitch Deep
We’ll go with another Astros-centric prop, which makes sense based on how I think the game will progress. My favorite play for the game is Framber Valdez Over 17.5 outs recorded.
All Valdez has to do is finish six innings to make this a winner! He’s gone six innings in 14 of his past 18 outings. And in the four games Valdez didn’t reach six innings, he went 5 2/3 innings. I’d imagine if he’s pitching well in the postseason, manager Joe Espada will push him for an extra out instead of handing it off to the bullpen mid-inning.
Valdez is one of the elite ground-ball pitchers in the sport. If he's using his sinker to his advantage, it'll help him get deeper into the game and record quick outs.
Can Valdez Lead Astros to Victory?
I think Valdez, who is priced at +215 to record a win, will cruise in this contest. In comparison, Skubal is +165, but the Astros are -155 favorites on the moneyline.
So, what does that mean?
It sounds like the books think Skubal will pitch well (which he likely will), but that the Astros' best shot at winning likely centers around a strong Valdez outing.
The Tigers offense is left-handed heavy. Their two best hitters are Kerry Carpenter, who doesn’t play against lefties, and Riley Greene, who is subpar against southpaws.
Houston is the better team and favored to win against the Cy Young favorite for a reason. I'm very happy to grab Valdez at +215.
