It's playoff baseball time in Houston as we are set to kick off the 2024 MLB Postseason. The Detroit Tigers hit the road for Game 1 and will take on the Astros.
Today's Game 1 will feature Tarik Skubal on the mound for the Tigers, and the Cy Young shoo-in will be opposed by Framber Valdez. Oddsmakers have the Tigers as +125 underdogs, and the total is set at 6.5.
I was able to build a four-leg same-game parlay that pays out over 5-1 on your original investment for today's game. Here are the four legs below:
- Detroit Tigers +0.5 F5 Run Line (-154)
- Under 3.5 F5 Innings (-145)
- Framber Valdez Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)
- Andy Ibanez Over 0.5 Hits (-210)
Parlay Odds: +550 (DraftKings)
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 6 -120o / 100u | +130 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 6 -120o / 100u | -155 |
Detroit Tigers +0.5 F5 Run Line (-154)
Tarik Skubal is a lock for the AL Cy-Young Award after completing the pitching triple crown over the weekend. He's been arguably the best pitcher in baseball in 2024 and is a big reason the Tigers are in the postseason.
Skubal enters the playoffs with ridiculous stats, leading the AL in wins, strikeouts and ERA. His metrics suggest that he is no fluke, and what's even crazier is that his stats should have been even stronger.
Skubal has mediocre numbers against Houston's lineup, but I would not take those stats into account here. Skubal was a developing pitcher over the last couple of seasons, and now that he has put all of the pieces together, it is going to be tough for Houston’s offense to get going.
The Tigers are not a great team against left-handed pitchers, but they are 17-65 against Valdez, which is good for a .262 batting average. Valdez is a strong starting pitcher, but his metrics suggest he declined throughout 2024.
With a total set at 6.5, every run is going to come at a premium. The insurance of getting the Tigers at +0.5 is massive, and I like their chances of either being tied or with a lead after five innings behind Skubal.
Under 3.5 F5 Innings (-145)
Just as I alluded to above, the offenses are going to be challenged in Game 1. Skubal might have some playoff nerves, but his stuff is far too good to overcome that.
Valdez has plenty of playoff experience, and despite a dip in his metrics throughout the season, he draws a strong matchup against the Tigers. Valdez still possesses a ridiculous 62% ground-ball rate, so there are not going to be many balls hit in the air against him.
Detroit’s offense is still questionable, as it was very streaky throughout the entire season. Valdez is a horse, so he should be able to pitch deep into the game with little to no issues.
Both pitchers are destined for a pitching duel in Game 1, and I'll eliminate some bullpen variance by targeting the F5 total.
Framber Valdez Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Valdez should be effective on Tuesday afternoon, but there are some concerning metrics that grabbed my attention regarding his strikeout ability. Valdez's chase, whiff and strikeout rates have all dipped a bit in 2024, and it leads me to believe he is going to be pitching to contact most of the afternoon.
Valdez's walk rate is 7.8%, which ranks in the middle of the pack amongst all MLB starters. The Tigers were a bottom-10 team in K-rate, but I think Valdez's recent performances encourage me to believe that he is going to land under the total of this prop.
Valdez is coming off a start against the Mariners where he only struck out four hitters, and he has not cleared 6.5 strikeouts in his last 3 starts. The Mariners were by far the most strikeout-prone offense in baseball in 2024, yet Valdez could not compile five strikeouts against them.
I will gladly pay some juice for Under 6.5 strikeouts.
Andy Ibanez Over 0.5 Hits (-210)
Ibanez hit .241 during the regular season and mostly spent his time on the bench against right-handers. With Valdez scheduled to start, I expect to see Ibanez at the top portion of the Tigers lineup.
Ibanez is batting .292 against left-handed pitching this season, along with a .357 OBP. I expect him to at least get two at-bats against Valdez, and I like his chances to break his 1-14 slump.
For what it's worth, Valdez throws a sinker 46% of the time, and Ibanez has a .288 xBA against that type of pitch.
