Tigers vs. Cardinals Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+160 | 9 -120 / -102 | +1.5 -125 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -190 | 9 -120 / -102 | -1.5 +104 |
The St. Louis Cardinals look to dig themselves out of a steep hole on Saturday afternoon. The Cardinals are 10-23 and have lost seven straight, meanwhile Detroit just swept the New York Mets in a three-game series and beat the Cardinals on Friday night.
Adam Wainwright will make both his long-awaited return from the Injured List and his 2023 debut Saturday for St. Louis. The 41-year-old matches up with Spencer Turnbull, who missed the entire 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Here's how to bet Saturday's Tigers vs Cardinals interleague matchup.
Detroit Tigers
Turnbull returned from Tommy John surgery this season, but has looked nothing like his 2021 self. The right-hander has been tattooed to the tune of a 6.83 ERA — 6.05 xERA — and a career-worst .287 xBA and .452 xSLG.
There's a lot to be worried about when it comes to the 30-year-old. His command has been off and he's walked two or more batters in all but one of his six starts. His strikeouts are way down and he has made it past the fifth inning just twice. His velocity has also seen a slight decrease and his pitches don't have the same success as they did before.
In short, Turnbull is fade material until he shows otherwise. He's not forcing ground balls like he used to and his HR/9 is over 1.00 for the first time in his career. Could he return to his 2021 form? Sure, but I doubt it's anytime soon.
As for the offense, Detroit has quietly been rising up the ranks after an extremely slow start. The Tigers are 20th in wRC+ over the past 14 days and are just outside the top 10 over the past seven. Eric Haase and Javier Baez have finally found their power and Detroit outscored the Mets 16-6 in a three-game sweep.
Detroit's bullpen ranks 13th in xFIP and has been bolstered by a dominant backend 1-2 punch of Jason Foley and Alex Lange. The duo have thrown 28 1/3 innings of four-run ball with 29 strikeouts and just 16 hits. Will Vest (7 scoreless innings) and Tyler Holton (1.69 ERA) have also provided a nice boost in recent weeks.
St. Louis Cardinals
Wainwright is set to make his season debut and it comes when St. Louis desperately needs all the help it can get as the Cardinals are 1-10 in their past 11.
Once favored to win the NL Central, the Cardinals have fallen into mediocrity and are 10-23. They're also last in the NL Central. Their offense is 12th in wRC+ and the starting rotation is 23rd in ERA and 14th in xFIP. The bullpen has been the only saving grace — No. 1 with a 3.57 xFIP — but success hasn't followed suit.
While Paul Goldschmidt has been great, Nolan Arenado has been ineffective. The third baseman has a 69 wRC+ with just a .291 on-base percentage through 31 games. Willson Contreras has been solid (123 wRC+) in his first season as a Cardinal.
Wainwright was a pitcher that I faded hard at the end of last season. He overperformed — 4.53 xERA to 3.71 actual — and ranked in the bottom 11% of all pitchers in xBA. He pitched to contact and rarely generated chases or whiffs, which shouldn't change in 2023.
The 41-year-old relies heavily on his curveball — throwing it 31.8% of the time — and often pairs it with a sinker-cutter combination. His hard stuff — four-seam included — has been largely seen well, according to advanced metrics.
I expect the Cardinals to bounce back as the season progresses. Their starting pitching may be in serious trouble — I don't expect much from Wainwright, Miles Mikolas or Steven Matz — but the offense is nothing to be worried about.
The Cardinals have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate and remain an above-average offense (101 wRC+), despite their early-season woes and Arenado's month-long slump.
Tigers vs. Cardinals Betting Pick
Saturday presents itself as a perfect opportunity to fade Wainwright. He was long due for regression last season, though it never came. Now, he's a year older, coming off an injury and facing a Tigers team that has been playing better lately.
I'm not keen on backing Turnbull, but will fade both pitchers and target the total. Turnbull has really struggled and until I see otherwise, I'll continue to bet against his success. St. Louis' offense hasn't been the issue and I expect it to get to Turnbull early.
The same can be said to Detroit and Wainwright. The Tigers offense is never fun to back, but Wainwright's expected metrics are too concerning to pass on. A 4.53 xERA and an xBA/xSLG of .270 and .419 is all I need to bet an over, even with Detroit's offense.
Plus, both teams used a lot of their high-leverage arms in the series opener.
A potentially shorthanded bullpen and two starters that are fade material is a perfect recipe for a Saturday afternoon over. Fade Wainwright and Turnbull in Game 2 of this interleague series.
Pick: Over 8.5 |
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